Market Trend Judgments and Logical Sorting

1. Interest Rates and Stock Market Logic: Maintain the core judgment of "interest rate cuts in September." The current rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is not due to improved corporate performance or foreign capital actively bottom fishing, but rather the proactive uplift of state-owned enterprise heavyweight stocks. Its core purpose is clear: to raise asset prices in advance to prevent American capital from completing accumulation at low levels.

2. Cryptocurrency Market Interpretation: There is no need for excessive panic over the recent decline in the cryptocurrency market; the peak of the bull market has not yet arrived. The current adjustment is essentially a "clean-up of unsteady chips," clearing obstacles for subsequent market rallies. From market signals, platform tokens like OKB and BNB have risen significantly first, reflecting the foresight of exchanges regarding the market—completing layouts first, then calmly distributing chips.

3. Forecasting the Withdrawal Window of Funds: It is expected that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026, market funds will withdraw from high positions with the benefits of interest rate cuts, transferring chips to investors who firmly believe that "interest rate cuts mean the market will soar." It is important to note that the current buying of BTC and ETH largely relies on low-interest leverage support; if the financing environment tightens in the future, insufficient buying power will directly pressure the market.

4. Balancing Interest Rate Cuts and Debt: Although interest rate cuts can release liquidity, the interest generated during the previous rate hike cycle needs to be repaid in "real money," and this cost will ultimately be borne by market entities. Caution is needed regarding the hidden debt pressure behind liquidity easing.

5. The Deeper Logic of U.S. Monetary Policy: The policy path of the United States has clear targeting: first, complete "harvesting" through interest rate hikes; if the target economic entities are not impacted, then guide their allocation of U.S. stocks and bonds, ultimately locking asset liquidity through exchange rate tools, forming a "dual closed loop," making it difficult for the target market to escape its influence. #币安HODLer空投PLUME #杰克逊霍尔会议 #Strategy增持比特币 #BitDigital转型 #ETH质押退出动态观察