Analysis of the Morning Thoughts on August 20
The current market continues to show weakness, with bears clearly holding the upper hand. From the chart observation, despite multiple attempts at bullish advances, the rebound strength is generally insufficient, often quickly retreating near key resistance levels, subsequently facing stronger bearish pressure, presenting an overall weak oscillating pattern.
Technical indicators also lean towards bearish: MACD remains below the zero line, with DIF and DEA maintaining a death cross; although RSI has entered the oversold zone, it has not yet formed an effective bottom divergence signal. Overall, this kind of repeated oscillation at low levels may pose a risk of inducing bulls to accumulate positions, suggesting a cautious approach to avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
It is recommended to short if Bitcoin rebounds to around 113500-114000, targeting a decline towards 112300-111800. If it breaks down, continue to look downwards.
