Recently, many people have noticed that $BTC BTC is moving sideways and $ETH ETH is slightly rising, leading them to shout, 'The Alt season is coming.' But the truth is not that simple. Don't be too hasty, or you might fall into a psychological trap.
A real Altcoin Season needs to meet 5 important conditions:
BTC must reach a peak and distribute at the peak.
Only when BTC reaches the highest price zone (all-time high) and starts showing signs of distribution will capital begin to flow out of BTC to Altcoins.
If BTC is just moving sideways or only slightly rising, it cannot be called Alt season yet.
ETH must also reach a peak.
ETH is often considered the 'big brother' of Altcoin. If ETH has not reached a new peak, smaller Altcoins are unlikely to have explosive opportunities.
History proves: the strongest Alt seasons occur when ETH also reaches a peak in parallel with BTC.
BTC Dominance must drop sharply to 25–30%.
BTC Dominance (the market cap of BTC compared to the entire market) is still at a high level.
Only when BTC Dominance drops sharply to 25–30% will the capital truly spread to Altcoins.
Stable macroeconomics, low interest rates.
If interest rates remain high, capital tends to concentrate on safe assets.
For Alt season to occur, a low-interest environment, even close to 0%, is needed, making money cheaper and ready to flow into riskier assets like crypto.
Cheap money, stable politics, positive sentiment.
When the economic-political context is stable, people have more idle money, and the mood is optimistic, speculative capital flows are stronger.
This is an essential factor in creating the 'tsunami wave' of Altcoin.
So, is it Alt season yet?
The answer: Not yet!
BTC is still just moving sideways.
ETH has only slightly increased, with no signs of reaching a peak.
Dominance is still high.
The macro context (interest rates, politics, liquidity) is still unstable.
If you rush to think that the Alt season has arrived, you are likely to buy at a short-term peak and then have to bear losses. The best advice right now: stay still, take profits whenever you can, then rest – travel for a few months and come back to reassess.
