From the spot premium index, we can see that the pullback starting from August 18 has led to a continuous decline in the spot premium, indicating that the first half of this pullback (after the new high) is driven by futures longs closing positions, while the second half is caused by spot selling.

Therefore, subjectively, I do not believe this support will hold. It is highly likely that the price will break below the demand zone, only rebounding after reaching the blue average support zone...

Interestingly, the upper price level of the blue average support zone is exactly 110,000, which coincides with the lower edge of the liquidation zone mentioned in the quote.

However, I am not very inclined to short here; after so many previous opportunities, I didn’t short, and now that the price has dropped from the orange average resistance zone to the lower half of the channel, there really isn’t much cost-effectiveness in shorting...

In summary, first, look for a pullback to 110,000, and then decide whether to take a bearish stance based on whether the blue line breaks down or not. After all, if the weekly chart continues like this, we will need to confirm a second top divergence next Monday...

For the bulls, the current task is to hold above 113,000 and not let the price enter a lower liquidation zone. This can maintain an illusion of effective horizontal support, which will help BTC rebound this week and prolong the time before confirming the weekly top divergence.

I certainly hope the price can hold, but if it cannot, we must recognize it...