Analytical-conceptual #Psy_Trade article for Binance users.
Author: #Tar_Agustin
In the world of the crypto market, investor emotions often reflect the very nature of the market: from euphoria that gives rise to bullish waves, to fear that causes capital to flee under the shadow of the bear. But it's important to understand that both states are merely parts of one breath of the financial system.
⏳ Average duration of cycles
🔹 Bull Markets (Bull Market) 🐂
Duration: 1–3 years (in some cases up to 4 years).
Character: gradual price increase with periodic corrections.
Drivers: mass attraction of new investors, positive regulatory news, growth in technology adoption (NFT, DeFi, Web3).
Psychology: euphoria and FOMO. People buy even at peaks because they fear 'missing the chance'.
🔹 Bear Markets (Bear Market) 🐻
Duration: 1–2 years (sometimes shorter, 8–12 months).
Character: gradual price decrease, lack of liquidity, reduced trading volumes.
Drivers: macroeconomic crises, 'unblocking' large volumes of tokens, exhaustion of interest after hype.
Psychology: fear and apathy. Investors 'freeze' their activity, panic, or exit the market.
📊 Historical benchmark
2017–2018: classic bull → bear cycle. Peak of Bitcoin ~$20k → drop to ~$3k.
2020–2021: bullish period against the backdrop of the pandemic and institutional interest (Tesla, MicroStrategy). BTC from ~$4k → ~$69k.
2022–2023: bear phase after the collapse of Terra, FTX, and aggressive monetary policy of the Fed.
👉 On average, the crypto market lives in four-year cycles, with 2–3 years of bullish wave and 1–2 years of corrective decline.
🎯 Tips for the trader: Psy_Trade perspective:
Don't confuse a wave with the ocean. Short-term 'storms' do not define the overall market climate.
Learn from apathy. The most advantageous purchases occur not during hype, but when the market seems 'dead'.
Take profits at peaks in parts. Bullish trends last for years, but often end abruptly — profit-taking disciplines.
Use the cycle as a map. Make decisions not emotionally, but through awareness: where are we in this market breathing right now?
📌 Summary:
Bull markets last longer but end louder. Bear markets are shorter but leave deeper scars.
And always remember — those who can wait and think cyclically gain an advantage over those chasing fleeting noise.
