When FOX TV's cameras turned to Trump, it seemed as if the breath of global cryptocurrency investors slowed for a moment. This controversial political figure, who once called Bitcoin 'a scam' and later hinted at 'loosening regulations on blockchain' during a campaign rally, could make every word tonight stir the trillion-dollar market's 'butterfly wings'. As participants who have witnessed three bull and bear markets, we need to escape the emotional trap of 'taking wind as rain' and dissect the real logic of the game behind this exclusive interview.
One, the 'Triple Gravitational Field' of policy statements: It's not just as simple as bullish or bearish.
The sensitivity of the crypto market to U.S. policies can be seen from the crash when the SEC continuously targeted stablecoins in 2021. Trump's statement tonight essentially draws a red line between 'regulatory framework' and 'industrial ambition'. Three signals are worth looking through the surface to see the essence:
If it is mentioned that 'blockchain is the future infrastructure', be wary whether this is accompanied by the groundwork for 'the Federal Reserve issuing digital dollars'—historically, the U.S. has often protected 'domestic innovation' before opening up, the 2019 Facebook Libra hearing is a precedent, such statements may temporarily boost Bitcoin, but in the long term may favor compliant platforms (like licensed platforms such as Coinbase).
If 'cryptocurrency is a money laundering tool' is mentioned again, it is necessary to distinguish whether it targets specific currencies (such as anonymous coins) or the entire industry. In 2020, the Trump administration promoted a bill for tracing crypto transfers, causing Monero to plummet 23% in a single day, while Bitcoin only fell 4%, indicating that the market has learned to 'hedge precisely'; blindly liquidating ETH may miss out on differentiated trends.
If the statement 'the U.S. leads the crypto industry' is made, it likely points to the competition for 'technical standard-setting rights'—just like the competition for 5G standards back in the day, this will benefit domestic crypto projects in the U.S. (like Solana, Avalanche), rather than all altcoins. The crypto regulatory executive order signed by Biden in 2023 has already revealed this tendency, and related concept stocks saw an average increase of 17% that week.
Two, Macro Undercurrent: The crypto market is turning into an 'economic stress test field'.
Don't be misled by the appearance of 'only talking about crypto'; Trump's economic rhetoric is the real 'launchpad for subtext'. A chain reaction across three dimensions needs to be extrapolated:
'Dollar depreciation' implies that if it materializes, Bitcoin's 'anti-inflation narrative' will be strengthened. However, note that during the unlimited QE period in 2020, Bitcoin rose from 10,000 to 60,000 over 18 months, and short-term surges are often accompanied by over 40% corrections; the risk of chasing highs far outweighs the opportunity.
'Debt default' being mentioned seems more like a bargaining chip, but market risk aversion will be activated. During the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in 2011, gold rose 17%, and if a similar situation were to occur in the still-maturing crypto market, funds would more likely flow to Bitcoin (which accounts for over 50% of the market cap) rather than smaller coins; 'broad rise' is a false proposition.
If 'criticism of tech monopolies' points to Apple and Google, decentralized applications (DApps) may be hyped, but currently DApps have less than 500,000 daily active users, far below the tens of millions of centralized applications. Conceptual heat often outpaces actual value realization by 3-6 months, and strict stop-loss measures should be set when intervening.
Three, Emotional Game: Smart money is 'buying expectations', but traps are hidden in the details.
CoinDesk data shows that Bitcoin options volatility has risen to 30%, a value that reached 42% before the FTX collapse in 2022 and 38% when Musk promoted it in 2021—high volatility does not necessarily mean a big increase, but rather that 'bull-bear betting has intensified'.
Institutional trends are more worth paying attention to: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has seen an inflow of 120 million USD in the past 7 days, while the retail-dominated contract market's long-short ratio has risen to 1.8 (normal range 1.2-1.5), which means when 'retail investors are uniformly bullish', institutions may instead take advantage of the good news to sell.
'Buying expectations and selling facts' was played out when BlackRock applied for a spot ETF in 2023: Bitcoin rose 8% on the day the news was announced, but then fell 12% in the following two weeks. If good news appears tonight, we need to watch the trading volume at the 100,000 USD mark—if it breaks through with a volume of less than 3 billion USD (the average of the last 30 days is 4.5 billion), it may be a trap to lure in buyers.
Investor Survival Manual: Break free from 'Trump Dependency Syndrome'
Short-term traders: Don't operate by staring at the live broadcast screen, place orders in advance at key price levels (for example, in the Bitcoin range of 90,000-110,000, set an order every 5,000 USD), control your position within 30%, and avoid emotional chasing of orders.
Long-term holders: Open the weekly chart and take a look—over the past five times when important figures in the U.S. made statements, the average impact period was no more than 45 days, while Bitcoin's compound annual return from 2010 to 2025 is 127%; short-term fluctuations are just noise within the long-term trend.
Finally, it is necessary to remain clear-headed: the core driving force of the crypto market has never been a single person's words, but rather the synergy of technological iteration (such as halving cycles), compliance processes (such as ETF approvals), and global liquidity (such as Federal Reserve interest rates). Trump's 'words' may cause the market to 'catch a cold', but what ultimately determines life and death is your depth of understanding of this market.
After tonight's storm, those who survive will definitely be those who understand the 'signals' rather than just listening to the 'sounds'.
