$BTC 🎙️【BTC Evening Broadcast｜August 19th 22:00 (Beijing)】

Spot based on Binance: BTC/USDT approximately 115039; perpetual mark price approximately 115396; 24h high 116939 / low 114304.
On the derivatives side: Total market OI 82.28 billion USD (+1.23%), futures turnover 37.30 billion USD (-61.91%); funding rate (Binance BTCUSDT perpetual) +0.0051%; sentiment index Fear & Greed = 56 (Greed). Conclusion: Leverage increases, volume decreases, sentiment is slightly bullish but not overheated; once direction is amplified, it will be magnified.

Technical framework: Price is still in consolidation after a pullback from previous highs, 115k serves as a dividing line for bulls and bears; focus on 118k/120k above, and 114.3k and 112.8k (near low and concentrated trading) below. CME main contract basis narrows, risk preference is neutral to bullish.

Direction judgment: Slightly upward volatility. Reason: Lightly positive funding rate + rising OI, greed not extreme → more favorable for testing pressure from 118k to 120k; however, until volume recovers, the probability of false breakouts remains.

Strategy (prepared for both long and short, not a trading suggestion)

* Bull A (buy on dip): Stop loss and volume increase between 114.8k to 115.2k, light position long, target 118k, strong extension look at 120k, stop loss 114.3k.

* Bull B (buy on breakout): Volume breaks above 118k and retests without breaking, add positions, target 120k to 122k, reduce high positions if it drops back to 117.8k.

* Bear A (weak rebound short): If pressured around 118k without breaking and volume diverges, try short, target 116k, stop loss 118.6k.

* Bear B (breaking down trend): Volume breaks below 114.3k, short in trend, target 112.8k, reduce positions on any pullback.

Risk control points: Strict stop loss; single trade risk ≤ 1% of account; follow signals of “price breaking + volume increasing”, do not make predictions without volume.

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