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How do whales influence $BTC ?
If anyone can 'move the market', it's the whales. These are investors who own thousands of BTC, often institutions, funds, or OG holders from the early days. And in 2025, they are more active than ever.
The number of wallets holding more than 1,000 bitcoins grew to 1,455 as of May 2025, marking a new wave of accumulation. Part of this growth is attributed to institutional players: Strategy alone now holds over 580,000 BTC (about 2.76% of the total supply), and BlackRock added bitcoins to its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and related portfolios.
Together, these two companies control about 6% of the total Bitcoin supply, which is a staggering figure in an ecosystem with a fixed issuance and increasingly thin exchange liquidity.
Whales aren't necessarily holders either. They buy cryptocurrency in large volumes, taking profits at sales peaks and often dumping it during retail sales surges. Since early 2025, several major corrections occurred after a significant inflow of funds from whale wallets to exchanges - this trend was noted by OnChain analysts as early as February.
On the other hand, periods of stagnation in whale wallets coincided with upward price momentum, including Bitcoin's rise above $110,000 in April.
However, not all whales are short-term traders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that since April, long-term whales realized a profit of only $679 million, while new large holders - likely hedge funds or wealthy individuals - pulled over $3.2 billion out of the game during the same period.
This indicates bifurcation: early whales are seemingly consolidating for the long term, while new participants are cashing out faster.
Whale behavior can be ambiguous, but its influence remains evident. Whether they are accumulating cryptocurrency or distributing it, these structures continue to play a crucial role in setting the tone and direction of price movement.
Did you know? The top 2% of Bitcoin addresses control over 90% of its supply, but most of these are cold wallets and exchanges. This means the actual number of people with whale influence is much smaller than the primary data on addresses suggests.
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Can developers influence the price of Bitcoin?
Updates initiated by developers in Bitcoin are rare, and when they occur, they usually create a stir. New features, improved scalability, or enhanced privacy? This attracts attention, and attention affects price.
SegWit - August 2017
SegWit changed the way data is stored in blocks, allowing for more transactions and reducing fees. It also paved the way for technologies like the Lightning Network.
What happened next? A sharp jump. Bitcoin soared from about $4,000 in August to nearly $20,000 by December 2017.
And it wasn't just about SegWit (2017 was a bull market period). SegWit helped lay the groundwork.
Taproot - November 2021
Taproot made Bitcoin smarter and more private. Complex transactions could now look simple on the blockchain, enhancing privacy and efficiency. Moreover, it paved the way for more advanced scripts.
Taproot activated just days after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $64,000. The price changed not only due to Taproot; it was also influenced by the excitement surrounding ETFs, macroeconomic factors, and much more. But it definitely reinforced the sense of Bitcoin's maturation.
Developing the update took several years, involving over 150 developers.
Ordinals and BRC-20 - 2023-2024
Then came what no one expected: NFTs and meme coins... on Bitcoin.
Thanks to Taproot and some creative developers, users began 'embedding' data in individual satoshis. Initially, these were JPEG files, which then evolved into BRC-20 tokens (essentially meme tokens that operated solely on Bitcoin).
Within a few months, the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency exceeded $2 billion, and mining fees surged.
Covenants, OP_CAT, and OP_CTV
As of May 2025, developers were discussing the following important events: covenants and new operational codes such as OP_CTV and OP_CAT. They could provide greater flexibility, such as storage and programmable spending conditions - important ideas for Bitcoin's long-term utility.
Did you know? Bitcoin developer activity surged in 2025: over 3,200 commits were recorded in repositories over the past year. This marks a significant rebound after the downturn of 2022 and signals a resurgence of momentum in protocol development.
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How governments do not control Bitcoin yet still drive the market
No government controls Bitcoin, but that doesn't mean they don't play a role. Changes in regulation, from ETF approvals to oversight laws, have been among the main factors causing significant market changes.
Take, for example, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in 2024. This was a turning point: several funds received the green light, and Bitcoin soared above $73,000. Billions flowed through platforms like IBIT from BlackRock, and the signal was loud and clear: institutions have finally arrived.
On the other hand, the EU's proposal to tighten control over wallets held for personal use shook the markets in 2023 and 2024. It was not just about privacy; it raised concerns that cryptocurrencies are being more segregated than accepted. Investors reacted accordingly, and the short-term drop reflected this anxiety.
Macroeconomics also plays a role. Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-beta tech stock. When the U.S. Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes at the end of 2023 and hinted at cuts in 2024, BTC reacted swiftly. Rate cuts led to increased liquidity, a weakening dollar, and renewed demand for hard assets, including Bitcoin.
And yet, even a complete ban could not stop it. Existing trading and mining restrictions in China did not reduce demand. Users continue to access BTC through over-the-counter (OTC) platforms, VPNs, and offshore platforms.
Indeed, OTC trading volumes in China remain surprisingly high in 2025. This resilience shows how difficult it is to enforce boundaries around something originally created to exist without borders.
Thus, while governments cannot control Bitcoin, their actions shape the environment in which it operates.
Did you know? The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also led to a surge in open interest for Bitcoin futures on the CME to a record $9.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
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What influences the price of Bitcoin?
So who really controls the price of Bitcoin?
It's not just about the 'whales'. Not the core developers. Not the SEC, the Fed, or the Chinese Politburo. They all are - and none of them are - involved in a decentralized power struggle where power is distributed, situational, and constantly changing.
Whales still drive volumes, especially during moments of illiquidity.
Developers shape the protocol, paving the way for future use cases.
Governments exert pressure or grant permissions through regulation, taxation, and enforcement.
And macroeconomic factors - interest rates, inflation, and the strength of the dollar - determine broader risk appetite.
But these are just the major players.
Sentiments also matter. Retail euphoria can trigger parabolic growth. Institutional caution can provoke sharp pullbacks. Even social narratives - from hype around artificial intelligence to global instability - now influence how Bitcoin is positioned in portfolios.
In 2025, you saw this interaction in action:
Approval of spot ETFs led to a record influx of funds, but not always sustainable growth.
Tightening regulations in one region led to growth in another.
Whale movements caused less panic in calmer markets.
And sometimes the biggest spikes occurred solely due to narrative inertia rather than fundamental principles.
In this lies the paradox of Bitcoin: it is decentralized but not immune to influence. It reflects the beliefs, behaviors, and ongoing dialogue among users, developers, institutions, and regulators.
Price is not so much a verdict as a pulse tracking confidence, uncertainty, and conviction in real time.
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