$BTC Evening Viewpoint:
Looking at the chart: The large pancake has now reached the end of the wedge consolidation and is about to show direction. Students need to be patient and wait.
Furthermore, at noon, it tested the lower boundary of the wedge again and obtained support for an upward rebound. If the upward rebound cannot produce a higher high, then it hasn't finished dropping and will continue to fall after a rebound because a low point has already appeared in the noon test of the wedge's lower boundary.
A W-bottom pattern has formed within the wedge shape, and for the W-bottom pattern to form, it must first break through the upper boundary of the wedge shape, specifically near the neckline at 116780 indicated by the white arrow. The key position is that a breakout and stabilization above 116780 in the hourly chart is necessary for the W-bottom to be valid. Simply breaking the wedge without breaking the neckline is not useful.
Only after breaking the neckline can the large pancake continue to rise, as indicated by the position marked by the right yellow arrow and 119126.
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The large pancake breaks through 115719 with volume; chase long positions on the right to capture the rebound. A drop below 114903 with volume that cannot recover means to chase short positions on the right. Manage your stop losses well.
If the large pancake stabilizes above 115705 on the hourly chart, look up to 116711-118505. If it stabilizes at 116711, what should come will come.
On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 114779, look down to 113512-112668. As long as it doesn't drop below the previous low of 112668, it can still hold.
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Continuing to look at the chart: On the daily chart, we can also draw a 5-wave upward movement followed by a 3-wave correction. In wave theory, 100 people can draw 120 different versions.
Therefore, wave theory doesn't hold much reference significance; just take a look at it because it can be drawn randomly without basis. According to my drawing of a 5-wave upward movement followed by a 3-wave correction, the large pancake's 5-wave rise has finished, and it is now starting to go through a 3-wave correction. Some students might also draw that the 5 waves haven’t finished and are currently in the 4th wave of correction, so wave theory is subjective; there’s no right or wrong, just take a look.
Why do I say the 5 waves have finished? Because the large pancake has reached a historical high. So currently, I see the large pancake undergoing the 3rd wave of correction, specifically in the 1st wave of correction. I can’t predict where the 1st wave correction will go, but I know that the 2nd wave rebound cannot break through the high of the 5th wave. If it breaks the high of the 5th wave, my drawing of the 5 waves up followed by 3 waves down will be invalid.
The 3rd wave correction is also the largest correction wave; where it can go is uncertain, so we will observe as it moves. The drawing may not be perfect, and the explanation may not be clear, so don’t take it too seriously. Pay attention to volume changes. Meeting adjourned.