🌍 Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Is the Countdown On?
In recent days, there have been continuous major news in the diplomatic arena:
🔹 Led by Trump, Putin and Zelensky may meet in Hungary within two weeks;
🔹 Ukraine presents its bargaining chips: $100 billion in military purchases + $50 billion in joint drone production, in exchange for Europe’s 'NATO-like' security guarantees;
🔹 European countries and the United States are building a new framework together, committing to long-term assistance to replace the contentious issue of Ukraine joining NATO.
Meanwhile, the Russian military is still conducting large-scale missile and drone attacks, and Ukraine continues to suffer heavy casualties. However, from a diplomatic perspective: the negotiation table is set, and the signal for peace has never been stronger.
How should the crypto space view this?
🔹 Short-term
If the war eases, global investors' demand for safe-haven assets will decrease. Bitcoin, which has often been regarded as digital gold, may lose some of its safe-haven funds, and short-term volatility is inevitable.
🔹 Medium-term
With geopolitical risks reduced, market risk appetite will rebound, leading to a preliminary rebound in traditional stock markets and risk assets. High Beta sectors in the crypto market (altcoins, RWA, AI narratives) may see a return of funds.
🔹 Long-term
Post-war reconstruction will require hundreds of billions of dollars, and aid, infrastructure, and cross-border payments will occur frequently. Traditional financial transfer efficiency is limited, and stablecoins and on-chain settlements are likely to become important supplementary tools.
This means: the new narrative brought by peace may present crypto as an efficiency tool, rather than merely a safe-haven position.
In summary:
If this is truly the last act of war, the crypto space will also switch narratives —
From safe-haven demand to growth and application.
