At three in the morning, staring at the flashing candlestick chart on the screen, I suddenly laughed out loud — it was the 37th day after my third liquidation, and I finally understood the whales' bottom line. In that laughter, there was relief, there was gratitude, and more so, an affirmation of the relentless research over these 37 days. The 8 million in blood and tears has brought me the recognition to survive in the cryptocurrency market; this 'tuition fee' was expensive, but it also transformed me.
Moment of Horror: The Instant Switch Between Gains and Crashes
On the day BTC surged to 69,000 in 2021, my account had an unrealized gain of 4 million. Everyone around was cheering, shouting 'We will break 100,000 soon', as if the wealth myth was right before us. But I was fixated on the red energy bar of the MACD on the screen — the price clearly set a new high, yet this bar had shrunk to half of what it was before.
In that moment, a strong sense of unease surged in my heart. At three in the morning, I decided to liquidate my position, my hands trembled so much that I couldn't hold the mouse steady. At the moment I clicked confirm, my palms were dripping with sweat. The next day, the market plummeted as if the crash button had been pressed, dropping 58% in a single day. The liquidation alerts from the exchange rang out like air raid sirens, and countless people's wealth evaporated in an instant. And because of that moment of vigilance, I narrowly escaped a disaster.
Bearish Divergence: The Retreat Signal from Whales
Having experienced that thrilling episode, I began to study the signal of bearish divergence obsessively. It is like a retreat signal from the whales; once it appears, one must be highly vigilant.
Classic cases abound:
When DOGE surged to 0.35 in 2023, the energy bar was only 30% of the previous high, and then the price fell sharply; during the first golden cross of PEPE in 2024, the energy bar suddenly shrank by 20%, and after a brief rise, it entered a downtrend.
This has led me to summarize a hard-and-fast rule: New price high + shrinking energy bars = immediately reduce positions. No matter how fervent market sentiment is, or how many people are bullish around, as long as this signal appears, one must act decisively without any hesitation.
Bullish Divergence: Opportunities Beneath the Surface
Opposite to bearish divergence is bullish divergence, which often indicates underlying opportunities.
When LUNA hit zero last year, the market was in a panic, and many thought it would completely exit the historical stage. But I discovered a bullish divergence signal on the weekly chart: the price made a new low, but the green energy bar was 60% shorter than the previous low.
At the same time, in conjunction with on-chain data: Whale 0x5f3 continuously accumulated for 21 days, while exchange inventories sharply decreased by 40%. These signals all hinted at the arrival of an opportunity. Sure enough, three months later, the RWA concept exploded, and LUNA’s price surged; I accurately caught this big fish.
Practical Mindset
Through countless practical experiences and summaries, I have formed my own practical mindset.
Three-Timeframe Resonance: The 30-minute chart is used to determine short-term direction, the 4-hour chart observes the strength of upward or downward movement, and the daily chart locks in the long-term trend. The three charts corroborate each other, which can improve the accuracy of judgment.
Distinguishing True and False Golden Crosses: The first golden cross is often a trap. At this time, observe the movements of OKEx's hot wallets. If funds flow out of the hot wallets, the credibility of the golden cross is very low; whereas if a second golden cross appears along with large on-chain transfers, it often signifies a real opportunity.
Ultimate Risk Control: When bearish divergence appears, and whales net flow out 5 million USDT, one must immediately cut positions without any attachment; when bullish divergence appears, and the long-short ratio is <0.7, one can gradually build positions to reduce risk.
Muscle Memory Training Method
During the period after the liquidation, I did many crazy things to train my sensitivity to signals.
I printed 100 classic divergence cases and plastered them all over the bathroom, so that whenever I go to the bathroom, I can see them, allowing these cases to sink into my memory. Every night before bed, I compare the MACD changes of three groups of cryptocurrencies to analyze the patterns. I also set up an automatic alert in the trading software for a 20% shrink in the energy bar to ensure I don’t miss any key signals.
Now, I can draw the full-cycle energy bar pattern of SOL from $12 to $120 with my eyes closed — this is not some talent, but an instinct honed with an 8 million tuition fee.
The Core of Dancing with the Market
How many people have lost hope in a volatile market, while I have stabilized my footing and even turned things around with this system? Countless. But the core of this is just one thing: dare to follow, dare to act, no dragging your feet.
I have already drawn the layout for the next wave, with levels, rhythm, and positions all clearly marked. Stick with me; no nonsense, just one principle: precise targeting, no wasted efforts.
Let me be straightforward: I only take people with strong execution! I do not take those with weak execution. They are the type who don’t curse when the market drops and don’t get greedy when it rises, able to steadily execute. In the cryptocurrency market, only by strictly executing strategies can one truly master their own destiny.
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