In the current market, a significant correction is already very clear. Do people really think that interest rate cuts are the only way out?

In the past couple of days, all cryptocurrencies have experienced a major correction. BTC dropped from 124,600 to 114,500, a decline of over 10,000 points, while ETH fell from 4,794 to a low of 4,192, a drop of more than 600 points. The speed of this decline can be described as very rapid. Does such a substantial drop indicate that it is about to end? Is this the last significant drop before a major interest rate cut?

First of all, regarding interest rate cuts, I find that retail investors generally have higher expectations, and those expectations are often too high. Many people believe that after an interest rate cut, there will definitely be various positive outcomes and significant increases, as if they have already regarded rate cuts as a lifeline. I think we should not have excessively high expectations. Although it is clearly stated that the possibility of an interest rate cut in September is indeed very high, historically, good news tends to be partially digested in advance. This means that there will be a surge in August, and indeed there was, but it also underwent a correction, which effectively cancels each other out. The real significant rise will definitely not occur on the day of the interest rate cut.

Secondly, based on the current market situation, the decline is far from over. The main force has not shown any signs of buying. The strength of the rebound is much smaller compared to before, indicating that the main players are unwilling to take positions at this stage. Since the main forces are not willing to participate, why should we, as the smaller players, expect new highs?

Lastly: The trend line of BTC was already broken a long time ago. Even if there is a rebound, it hasn't truly recovered, and each rebound is merely a slight uptick. Looking at the overall market, in the short term, BTC needs to stabilize around 110,000. In the long term, it could drop to 90,000 or even lower. Therefore, it is mainly recommended to short at this time. Do not think in reverse; buying the dip too early could lead to being halfway up the mountain. $BTC $ETH #币安HODLer空投PLUME #加密市场回调 #俄乌冲突即将结束？