The Fed's actions this time are quite interesting! The global market is currently like the calm before the storm, the dollar suddenly becomes strong, gold and US bonds rise then fall, and the US stock market is swaying near historical highs—this situation clearly suggests that someone has received insider information in advance!
I tell you, the market structure has already revealed its flaws: when the dollar rises, almost all assets follow suit, isn't this just institutions adjusting their positions in advance? Powell's speech on Thursday at Jackson Hole is key, but the folks on Wall Street are already clear about it. The market originally thought a rate cut in September was a done deal, but now the probability has dropped to 80%! Citigroup has even jumped out to say that dollar positions have shifted from bearish to neutral, indicating that big funds are now playing dead and watching the show.
Here comes the key point! The market is slowly accepting the setting of a "more hawkish Fed". Even if Powell sends out hawkish signals, it probably won't cause a stir—everyone is not waiting for surprises, but rather afraid of being splashed with cold water. However, this old fox Powell definitely won't show his cards directly, most likely he will still be evasive, but as soon as the labor market data comes out, it could ignite market expectations in an instant.
Let me share my positioning thoughts:
This wave of dollar strength is definitely not without reason; the global market will soon be suffocated. Short-term players can keep an eye on the dollar's movement and preemptively set up short positions on risk assets—this opportunity cannot be missed!
Gold's recent drop is a bit unjustified; once the Fed's signals become clearer, it will definitely rebound. The market sentiment is so sensitive right now, and the cost-performance ratio for bottom-fishing gold in the short term is very high; I have personally started with a small position.
The A-shares market is even more interesting! How long has the Shanghai Composite Index been hovering around 3674 points? Let me share a scoop with you, the big funds behind the Chinese stock market are already laying out strategies for the next 3-5 years. If this level breaks, it will definitely be a precursor to a major market movement, and I am now watching the changes in trading volume every day.
The market is currently betting on whether Powell will go against expectations! But no matter what he says, the three directions of the dollar, gold, and A-shares must be closely monitored. Especially for my friends in the crypto space, the Fed's policy shift will definitely affect capital flows; although our main battlefield is in the crypto market, we must always pay attention to the movements in the traditional market!
The opportunity is approaching; how can retail investors seize it? Follow the judge to catch the next wave