Bloody Subsidy! Trump's $10.9 billion equity swap, is the ETH crash to $4270 a bottom signal or the end of the bull market?
The crypto circle exploded! The Trump administration's powerful strike, $10.9 billion chip subsidy turned into equity, 10% of Intel's shares fell into the federal government's pocket! At the same time, the price of Ethereum (ETH) suddenly fell back to $4270, with the K-line chart showing a 'spike' pattern. This bloody linkage between traditional political and business games and the crypto market, is it a precursor to a crash or a new engine for a bull market?
1. Trump's 'Equity Hijacking': Tech Stock Earthquake, Crypto Market Trembles?
On August 19, it was reported that the White House is negotiating with Intel to convert the originally planned $10.9 billion (chip act) subsidy into equity investment, directly acquiring 10% of the latter's shares. Following the news, Intel's stock plummeted 5% intraday, but the previous week's 23% surge due to acquisition rumors exposed the extreme vulnerability of traditional tech stocks.
Key Point Analysis:
Policy Shift Signal: The Trump administration's first transition from 'cash subsidies' to 'equity holdings' marks an upgrade in US intervention in key tech companies. If extended to other chip companies, the valuation logic of traditional tech stocks may be reconstructed.
The Hidden Connection with the Crypto Market: Although there is no direct link between ETH and Trump's policies, the volatility of tech stocks has historically been a 'sentiment barometer' for the crypto market. A 2023 JPMorgan report shows that Bitcoin's correlation with small-cap tech stocks (such as the Russell 2000 index) is as high as 72%, and since ETH has a stronger 'tech attribute', it may be affected by sentiment in the short term.
2. ETH $4270 Pullback: Technical Indicators Suggest a 'Golden Pit'?
Just as Trump wields the subsidy stick, the ETH price suddenly falls back to $4270, with the K-line chart showing that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has been breached, but then it closes with a 'bullish engulfing' pattern. Institutional data reveals three key signals:
1. Technical Aspect: Bulls are still holding strong!
Support Level Confirmation: The area around $4270 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level) has been tested multiple times without breaking, and the MACD histogram continues to shorten, indicating that bullish momentum is not dissipating.
Divergence in Price and Volume: Despite the price decline, trading volume has shrunk simultaneously, indicating that the selling pressure is not due to panic selling, but rather a healthy pullback.
2. Institutional Funds Going Against the Trend to Buy the Dip!
Continuous Net Inflows into ETFs: Since August, US Ethereum spot ETFs have raised over $4.7 billion, with giants like BlackRock and Grayscale still increasing their positions.
Increased Staked Lockup: The proportion of staked ETH on the Beacon Chain has reached 30% (about 36 million), and after the Petra upgrade, liquidity has improved, but the average unlocking period for validators still requires 3-6 months, resulting in a continued tightening of supply.
3. Long-term Logic: The RWA (Real World Assets) On-chain Frenzy
BlackRock, Fidelity, and other institutions have deployed over $6 billion in RWA (tokenized US Treasuries, fund shares) through Ethereum, and the value of ETH as a 'settlement layer' is being systematically reassessed. Analysts estimate that if the RWA scale exceeds a trillion, the price bottom of ETH may be pushed up to $6800.
3. Bloody Linkage: How does the traditional political and business game 'ignite' the crypto bull market?
Trump's 'subsidy turning into equity' seems unrelated to the crypto market, but actually hides three major transmission paths:
Risk Appetite Shift: If tech stocks decline due to policy uncertainty, funds may flow into 'non-sovereign assets' like ETH, especially when the RWA on-chain narrative strengthens its 'digital gold' attribute.
Inflation Hedge Demand: US debt has exceeded $35 trillion, if the Trump administration continues to expand fiscal stimulus, the appeal of crypto assets as an 'anti-inflation' tool will soar.
Regulatory Expectation Gap: The SEC's classification of staking ETFs as 'non-securities', combined with the passage of the (Regulatory Clarity Act), enhances the compliance of the Ethereum ecosystem, which may attract more traditional funds.
4. Is $4270 a 'golden pit' or a 'bull market trap'?
In the short term, ETH has completed a technical pullback around $4270, with continuous inflow of institutional funds plus the RWA narrative, the $4000 threshold has changed from a 'resistance level' to a 'value anchor'. However, caution is needed:
Trump's Policy Black Swan: If more tech stocks are 'equity hijacked', market sentiment may temporarily impact the crypto market.
Whale Selling Pressure: 880,000 ETH will be unstaked this week, and a concentrated sell-off may trigger short-term volatility.
The Ethereum bull market has never relied on Trump's subsidies, but rather on a dual revolution of institutions and technology. $4270 may be the 'launching pad' for the next round of explosive growth.
ETH completed a technical pullback at $4270, with the 61.8% retracement level providing effective support, and the divergence in price and volume indicates limited selling pressure. Institutional funds are continuously increasing their positions through ETFs, and the RWA on-chain narrative strengthens its 'digital gold' attribute, moving the long-term value anchor up to $6800.
