On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index down 0.1%, the S&P 500 index down 0.05%, and gold down 0.12%. This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and on Friday, Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Goldman Sachs stated that the number of new jobs in the U.S. has slowed to about 30,000 per month, far below the approximately 80,000 needed for full employment. If unemployment in the U.S. shows a more significant rise, it could trigger a 50 basis point rate cut.
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The Federal Reserve Board announced that it will terminate the new activity supervision program and restore oversight of banks' new business through normal regulatory processes. Since the Board initiated the regulatory program targeting specific cryptocurrency and fintech activities of banks, the Federal Reserve has deepened its understanding of these activities, the associated risks, and banks' risk management practices. Based on this, the Federal Reserve will reintegrate the relevant knowledge and supervision of these activities into standard regulatory processes and rescind the regulatory letter establishing the program in 2023. Executive Director of the Intermediaries Department of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, Ye Zhiheng, noted that since the recent (stablecoin regulations) came into effect, some companies claim to apply for licenses or intend to apply for licenses. Investors have reacted enthusiastically, calling for them to maintain a 'rational line,' as the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is concerned about the increased risk of fraud. Grayscale submitted an S-1 application for a DOGE ETF to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. El Salvador has cumulatively increased its BTC holdings by 8 BTC over the past 7 days, totaling 6,271.18 BTC. According to Nikkei News, Japan's Financial Services Agency will approve the first issuance of a yen-denominated stablecoin, JPYC, this month. The Financial Services Agency will register the fintech company JPYC Inc., which is expected to begin sales in the coming weeks, with the digital currency backed by liquid assets such as Japanese government bonds.
Bitcoin Standard Treasury Co. is preparing to go public on Nasdaq through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners. It currently holds approximately 30,000 BTC on its balance sheet and plans to increase its holdings to over 50,000 BTC. According to a Matrixport research report, while there is no excessive concern about further downside risks, BTC may test the $112,000 level again as the market remains cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The market is waiting for a real catalyst, with the Federal Reserve's September 17 meeting being the most critical event. Galaxy Digital stated that this feels like a healthy profit-taking rather than the beginning of a reversal, but it also highlights the market's vulnerability when leverage accumulates quickly. The deleveraging process triggered a run on staked positions, causing the exit queue for the ETH Beacon Chain to set a historical record of 13 days (approximately 870,000 ETH), reminding people that the impacts of leverage are two-way. Financial consulting giant deVere Group expects that BTC could rise to $150,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors including unprecedented dollar inflows into the U.S. spot BTC ETF; several large listed companies incorporating BTC into their balance sheets; and Trump's BTC-friendly policies. These are part of a deeper systematic transformation of the global financial system. Last week, the cumulative inflow into the U.S. BTC spot ETF was $547.6 million, while the cumulative inflow into the spot ETH ETF was $2.8521 billion. The market capitalization of stablecoins grew 2.18% over the past 7 days to $276.916 billion. According to Artemis data, the supply of stablecoins on ETH increased by $16.4 billion over the past month.
According to strategicethreserve data, the total holdings of ETH treasury strategy companies reached 3.7 million ETH, accounting for 3.06% of the supply; ETH ETF holdings reached 6.56 million ETH, accounting for 5.42% of the supply. David Duong, head of research at Cb Institutional, stated that the demand for ETH has not ended. Since early August, leading ETH treasury reserve companies have cumulatively increased their holdings by over 795,000 ETH. Bitmine increased its holdings by 135,000 ETH over the weekend, totaling 1.297 million ETH. Hedge fund Brevan Howard reported holding over $2.32 billion in BlackRock's BTC spot ETF. Nate Geraci, co-founder of The ETF Institute, stated that the vast majority of investors participating in the U.S. Bank Global Fund Manager Survey still have zero exposure to cryptocurrencies. Among the few investors with exposure, the average portfolio allocation is 3.2%. CNBC reported that the main driving force behind ETH's rise comes from institutional accumulation, primarily from the U.S., while Japan and South Korea are important crypto markets in Asia that could unleash a huge wave of institutional capital after new regulations are introduced. Economist Shwetha Sunilkumar stated that last year, Fed Chair Powell was candid about the reasons for the upcoming rate cuts at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. This year, Powell may not be as frank due to last week's stronger-than-expected PPI inflation data. The baseline expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at the September meeting.
Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the job market is softening, the economy is slowing down, and one cannot neglect support for the labor market due to excessive concerns about inflation. There are reasons to expect two rate cuts this year, with preparations to begin easing policies as early as next month.
Bloomberg reported that economist Marc Sumerlin, seen as a potential candidate for the Federal Reserve, stated that policymakers should significantly cut rates next month, as a 4.3% federal funds rate is too high, supporting a 50 basis point cut. Goldman Sachs reported that new job numbers have slowed to about 30,000 per month, far below the approximately 80,000 needed for full employment. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times in September, October, and December, and if the unemployment rate shows a more significant increase, it may trigger a larger cut of 50 basis points. On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index down 0.1%, the S&P 500 index down 0.05%, and gold down 0.12%; BTC fell 1.1%, and ETH fell 3.6%. Following last weekend's 'Putin-Trump meeting,' the market is awaiting the results of Tuesday's talks between Trump and European leaders, with potential new developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation. News needs to be monitored as the market consolidates.
BTC's market share fell 1.78% over the past week to 59.4%, while the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose 0.31% during the same period. The total market capitalization excluding BTC rose 3.06%, and the total market capitalization excluding both BTC and ETH rose 1.91%. When BTC's market capitalization begins to decline, the market sees the rising values of other coins as a potential indication that an altcoin season is approaching. This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and on Friday, Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Powell may suggest that the likelihood of implementing further easing policies this year is high, but he is uncertain about committing to a rate cut in September. If this week's Jackson Hole meeting goes smoothly, it could become a turning point for the market, leading into discussions about rate cuts. Subsequent rate cuts are inevitable as the market waits for a new phase of the bull market.