Last night, a bullish trend was shown in the 5-minute and 15-minute cycles, with no breakout pattern appearing. This morning's spike reached 4265, approaching the aggressive range of 4225-4250 (average price of 4237.5), but did not touch the bottom stop-loss at 4225, allowing the bottom position to continue holding.
Bitcoin's first position over the weekend rose from 115150 to a maximum of 116938, gaining nearly 1800 points. Both 800 points and 1500 points as take-profit levels are reasonable; a reminder before sleep to exit at least to lock in 800 points of profit. The position at 116400 has had a chance to break even; if you don't exit, that's simply greed!
In the past 24 hours, a total of 108,793 people have been liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $434 million, including $336 million in long positions and $98.03 million in short positions.
BTC
Bitcoin's recent decline is mainly dragged down by Ethereum, with market funds and activity concentrated on Ethereum. Currently, as BTC rebounds and hits the upper track, there have been consecutive long upper shadows, and the K-line entity is narrowing, indicating a weakening of short-term upward momentum.
The price surged and then fell, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming a local top, compounded by shrinking trading volume and declining market activity. If it cannot break through the strong resistance zone of 118500-118800 in the short term, the bearish trend will continue.
Strategy:
Focus on support at 112000, 109500; pressure tentatively set at 117282, 118495; the key point now is 116411, with strong support at 114723. A pullback here allows for gradual buying, with heavy position entry at 112977; gains and losses will determine the intraday direction!
ETH
From the daily chart, Ethereum has started to pull back after approaching the historical high of around 4800, forming a series of long upper shadows and bearish candles, clearly indicating strong selling pressure above.
In the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's price has been oscillating in the range after breaking below the middle track, with no effective breakthrough on the lower track, but the MACD green bars are gradually shortening, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. In the short term, there is a stalemate between bulls and bears; if there is to be upward space, it must break and stabilize above the pressure of 4410-4430.
Strategy:
Focus on support at 4249, 4100, 3892; pressure tentatively set at 4451, 4631, 4735; heavy position entry at 4034, the key point now is whether support confirmation can be obtained at 4250±5 within the next few days!
Ethereum has attracted attention this week with two major positive developments, and its potential is worth looking forward to:
1. FUSAKA Osaka Upgrade
The second upgrade this year has been confirmed, officially launching at the beginning of January, and will become the biggest hype hotspot in the second half of the year - previous upgrades (like Shanghai, Cancun) have led to ETH skyrocketing and doubling, and compared to the May Prague upgrade (which had no actual performance impact), this upgrade is more meaningful.
2. Spot ETF staking feature
In October, the staking function will be approved, which can bring a 3% staking yield - compared to US Treasuries (which need to be grabbed), the annual return rate of the S&P 500, and Coca-Cola's annual dividend (all around 3%), the attraction is prominent and more conducive to speculation. Currently, Ethereum's funds have been taken over by Wall Street for speculation, and the situation is vastly different now, with potential far exceeding the past.
Altcoin
In terms of altcoins, there has been a nearly comprehensive decline. However, compared to the past, the situation is a bit different; in previous markets, this level of decline would have been enough to cause many small coins to crash, yet the current situation is not so dire, indicating that leveraged funds are not heavily invested in altcoins, while ETH has absorbed most of the liquidity.
So in the short term, one should consider bottom-fishing, but focus should be on mainstream coins instead of rushing into small coins; following the funds is a more stable strategy.
On-chain
$XDOG, as the leader of the X chain, performed sluggishly today, showing no signs of improvement. The surprise came from yesterday's lottery coin $XLAB, which skyrocketed 10 times, and this morning surged over 20 times, truly a case of 'blooming many times', going from a rise to zero and then to a surge.
Many large institutions are still observing, waiting for officially recognized leaders. Currently, the most profitable remains the accumulated $OKB. Looking back, the performance of $DONKEY on the BSC chain has been better. Continuing to wait, one will definitely emerge a golden dog.
