The recent decline in BTC is actually more driven by ETH. The funds in the market are clearly leaning towards ETH, with activity almost entirely concentrated there. Bitcoin has support around $11,500, but the rebound may be limited, and the focus for short-term bottom-fishing may not necessarily be on it.
ETH's current trend resembles a continuous decline for a simple reason: the prior surge was too large, leading to accumulated selling pressure. Once the funds are cashed out, a chain reaction can easily occur. So far, the decline has surpassed 10% from its peak, although the pace of the drop is not visually appealing, there will still be some recovery along the way. The 4300 level is critical; it was not maintained yesterday, and the next support to watch is around 4100. This has little impact on spot trading, but the pressure will be significant for contracts.
In the altcoin sector, almost everything is down, but it's somewhat different compared to the past. Historically, this level of decline would have led to many small coins collapsing, but the situation is not as dire now, indicating that leveraged funds are not heavily invested in altcoins. Instead, ETH has absorbed most of the liquidity, so in the short term, it is advisable to consider bottom-fishing while prioritizing mainstream coins instead of rushing into small coins; following the flow of funds is a more stable strategy.
As soon as the PPI data was released last week, the market immediately adjusted its rate cut expectations, causing Bitcoin to spike and then fall back, triggering over $1 billion in long liquidations. Altcoins have been hot these past two weeks, with both market capitalization and leverage reaching new highs, but such accumulation will soon need to be liquidated.
The real key is this Friday—Powell's speech to global central banks, which the market generally expects will clarify the pace of interest rate cuts. It is worth noting that the last rate cut was in 2020, which triggered a surge in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and commodities until tightening began in 2022.
Experience tells us that interest rate policies themselves are often not turning points; what truly matters is the market's trading on "expectations." The 2021 ETF is an example: prices rose during the rumors but peaked on the day of the announcement.
So this Friday, expectations and realizations intertwine, and it is very likely to become a turning point for the market.
Get ready for 3 altcoins that could increase tenfold in the future!
1. XRP
According to Perplexity's model, XRP ($XRP) could reach the $9 mark by the end of 2025, more than three times its current price of $2.97.
The recent trend of this token is worth noting. On July 18, XRP soared to $3.65, the highest level since hitting $3.40 in 2018, and then fell about 18.5% as the market experienced widespread profit-taking.
Despite some pullback, several strong factors still support Ripple's future, particularly discussions around its new stablecoin RLUSD and news that thousands of U.S. pharmacies under Wellgistics Health will use the XRP ledger for fund transfers.
XRP's reputation among mainstream financial institutions continues to improve. In 2024, the United Nations Capital Development Fund rated it as the top solution for global payments.
The long-term legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially ended this year, with the SEC withdrawing its lawsuit, further boosting market bullish sentiment. Previously, a court ruling in 2023 confirmed that XRP's retail sales do not fall under securities law jurisdiction—this is a milestone victory for Ripple and the entire cryptocurrency industry.
If XRP can retrace and surpass its previous historical high, Perplexity believes that a rise to $4 could happen relatively quickly. However, reaching $9 would require a sustained and broad bull market.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a downward trend, at 45, indicating that as traders cash out recent profits, selling pressure is increasing. As the selling momentum pushes XRP towards an oversold (and thus undervalued) asset, this is likely to become a buying signal in the coming days.
In the past 365 days, XRP has soared 423%, far exceeding Bitcoin's 92% increase and Ethereum's 61% increase during the same period.
2. SOL
Solana ($SOL) continues to strengthen its role in the smart contract environment, with a market cap exceeding $97.6 billion, attracting the attention of institutional participants and developers.
The recent momentum largely stems from speculation that the U.S. may approve a Solana spot ETF. If confirmed, this product could see massive capital inflows, paving the way for broader institutional adoption, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Earlier this year, President Trump hinted on his social media platform that Solana may be included in the U.S. national Bitcoin reserve plan, further fueling market speculation. However, the current proposal designates SOL as a "hold only" asset, meaning it can only be obtained through government seizure rather than direct market purchases.
From a technical perspective, Solana has successfully broken out of a long-term downtrend. After reaching $250 in January, the token fell to around $100 in April, then rebounded to its current level of around $181.
After breaking out of the descending wedge pattern, Bitcoin could potentially rise to $1,000 by the end of 2025, which is more than three times its historical high of $293.31 set in January.
In other words, this bullish scenario may require the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to complete and release comprehensive cryptocurrency regulations and approve the Solana ETF by the end of the year.
3. XLM
Stellar ($XLM), launched in 2014, is one of the oldest blockchain projects in the cryptocurrency industry. It aims for fast, low-cost cross-border transfers, similar to Ripple (XRP) and Bitcoin Cash, but uses a unique protocol.
Unlike Bitcoin's energy-intensive mining process, Stellar uses the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), which relies on a trusted network of validators to approve transactions.
Perplexity AI predicts that Stellar's price could rise from the current $0.406 to $1.29, offering investors a potential 3x return and surpassing the historical high of $0.8756 set in early 2018.
Stellar's market cap exceeds $12.7 billion, making it one of the top 20 cryptocurrencies. Analysts believe that once the U.S. policy framework becomes clearer, Stellar could rise further.
In the short term, XLM seems to be gaining momentum. After the current market sell-off ends, bullish sentiment among investors may push XLM to challenge its all-time high in October.
However, resistance may be at $0.50, and then again at $60. For altcoin investors who are patient enough to wait for a long-term potential increase, this may be an accumulation opportunity.
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