This recent wave of decline has truly caught people off guard.
BTC and ETH are both turning down, and the market rhythm is all messed up. But don’t panic; good news is actually right in front of you; whether you can seize the opportunities and risks depends on you.
ETH: High pullback pressure, but two major favorable conditions are approaching.
Let’s first talk about #ETH.
ETH's recent decline resembles a standard ABC three-wave pattern.
The first two waves were a 7% drop followed by a 5% rebound; are we now entering the third wave?
If following the script, the target is around 4260, followed by a quick rebound or consolidation.
A typical technique of the manipulators is becoming clearer.
The best-case scenario is to spike down and then quickly pull back; we cannot close below 4000, otherwise, the trend becomes a bit dangerous.
But the favorable news really cannot be ignored:
In November, Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade will go live: this is a genuine performance-enhancing upgrade, with speed increased by 25 times, not the previous kind of conceptual hype. Looking back at history, every upgrade has almost ignited the market, and this time it has even higher value.
The ETH spot ETF is expected to be approved in October with staking functionality: this means that holding the ETF can yield an additional approximately 3%, directly overshadowing traditional investment returns like U.S. Treasury bonds and Coca-Cola dividends. How could Wall Street money not be tempted?
I judge that these two favorable conditions are the core driving forces for ETH in the second half of the year. In the short term, we see a pullback, but in the long term, it is accumulating strength.
BTC: Bull-bear game, key support at 112K.
BTC has recently been weaker than ETH. A typical false breakout has cut many people, and a batch of late buyers got stuck at the peak, falling down again to kill the bears.
The key now is the neckline around 112K; if it holds, there is a chance for a rebound, but if it doesn't, we need to be cautious about a pullback to 108K.
In the big picture, the bull market hasn't broken, but the fluctuations will get more intense.
Dogecoin ETF: Potential explosive point in October.
Let’s first look at the technical side: although I am optimistic about #DOGE in the long term, the short-term bearish pattern at the 4H level still needs caution. Currently, the 4H is forming a head and shoulders top pattern; bulls may consider buying around 0.2.
The most explosive favorable news recently is that the Dogecoin ETF application has been officially submitted. Behind it are major institutions like Grayscale and Bitwise, which successfully pushed out the BTC and ETH ETFs before.
If it really gets approved in October, DOGE is bound to become a hot topic.
At the same time, SOL, XRP, ADA, and other coins also have ETF applications in progress. It’s best to prioritize targets with 'clear favorable expectations' when selecting coins.
Regarding how to select targets, it was also discussed in yesterday's post, you can take a look.
Whales are optimistic about the RWA track; can $LINK still be chased?
In fact, many high-quality altcoins often take off once you miss the low-position opportunity—just think of $ENA and $UNI.
#LINK is stronger than them, having broken through monthly pressure, but can it hold? I don't play high-position calls; low-position layouts are the right path, with key pressure around 30.
Additionally, pay attention to the actions of whales. Recently they have started to increase their positions in #AERO, and before LINK hardly moved, the whales were also continuously buying.
The reason is simple: they are continuously laying out in the RWA track.
For RWA to take off, it relies on oracles (LINK) and compliant exchanges (like Coinbase), with Coinbase dominating the RWA target being AERO. However, AERO has already multiplied several times from its bottom, and there are large whales stuck at the 1.4 position. Whether to follow along still depends on your own judgment.
Achieving a valuation of 3 billion, backed by the White House, the compliance king Plume is debuting, and a new king bomb for the RWA market is here!
On the macro front: Powell is going to make a statement this Friday.
Don't forget, there is another super risk point at 10 PM this Friday—global central bank annual meeting.
Powell will reveal whether there will be a rate cut in September at the meeting. The market is currently betting on an 80% probability of a rate cut, but everyone understands Powell's style; he could easily reverse his stance.
At that time, U.S. stocks and the crypto circle will inevitably see a big fluctuation.
So, conservative friends can wait until Friday's news lands before considering.
I'll stop the article here! If you're still unclear about the direction in the crypto circle, why not layout with me? Waiting for you, otherwise in the next wave of the market, you might again be on the other side.
