There is another potential flashpoint on the macro side:

The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced that it needs to borrow over a trillion dollars in Q3, with the goal of boosting the Treasury General Account (TGA) to $850 billion by the end of September.

What does this mean? Simply put: the Treasury is trying hard to issue short-term debt to absorb all the money in the market into its own pockets.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's RRP (reverse repurchase agreement) balance is almost depleted, which was originally a giant "reservoir," but now the reservoir is dry. When the Treasury tries to draw more from it, it directly withdraws from the market's veins.

The Treasury says it wants to do repurchases, which sounds like a market rescue, but in reality, it only prevents the bond market from getting stuck; fundamentally, it is still a net withdrawal.

Therefore, with tight funding in September, risk assets might take a hit.

However, based on last year's rhythm, true market activity might only emerge after October.