Today's Different Pancake Thinking
Support and Resistance
BTC Key Levels:
Support: 114,500-115,000 (recent low) → 112,000 (strong support) → $108,000 (Fibonacci retracement zone).
Resistance: 117,500-118,000 (4-hour EMA200 + previous high resistance) → 120,000 (psychological barrier).
BTC: 4-hour MACD death cross continues, RSI (14) drops to the neutral zone at 50, Bollinger Bands narrowing indicates risk of a trend change; daily chart forming a 'descending triangle' prototype, if it breaks below $114,500 it may accelerate the pullback.
Macroeconomic Pressure
Federal Reserve Policy: September interest rate cut probability drops to 85%, July PPI month-on-month rises 0.9% (above expectations), inflation concerns boost the dollar index, suppressing risk assets.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty in Eastern Europe intensifies, safe-haven funds flow into gold, cryptocurrencies are sold off.
On-chain and Derivative Risks
Miners sold $720 million BTC within 7 days, ETH staking nodes exited 1,632 in one day, short-term selling pressure has not been fully released.
The proportion of short positions in the entire network is 65%, with short positions concentrated above $4,500 for ETH; if a rebound occurs, it may trigger 'short squeeze' liquidations.
BTC:
Long Positions: Test long positions lightly at 114,500-115,000, stop-loss at 113,000, target $116,500-117,500.
