Users of the Kalshi prediction market predict that Google's Gemini will become the top AI text model by the end of 2025. With the intensifying competition among large language models (LLM), Gemini's competitors are also undergoing continuous development updates.
Recently, Gemini has received 57% user support, showing a clear lead, while support rates for OpenAI's ChatGPT and xAI's Grok have dropped to 20% and 15%, respectively.
This prediction will be revealed on December 31, and Kalshi's LM Arena Leaderboard will validate the results, which has currently attracted $7.4 million in trading volume.
On August 15, Google announced new updates for Gemini, including storybook mode, improved reasoning models, and more. Meanwhile, OpenAI and xAI face their own issues, such as criticism of OpenAI's ChatGPT-5 and accusations of political bias against xAI's Grok.
Intensifying LLM competition
In recent years, the competition to become the world's top large language model has been extremely fierce. From internet search to mathematical models, new players continue to emerge.
However, antitrust actions may become obstacles to AI development. In October 2024, antitrust agencies from G7 countries indicated they might take action to protect competition in the AI sector.