📌 #PowellWatch – All eyes on Jackson Hole on August 22
On August 22, 2025, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole conference – an event that could shape global monetary policy trends in the second half of the year. This may also be Powell's last time attending this event in his capacity as Fed Chairman, making the market pay special attention.
According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% at the September meeting has now risen to ~91.8%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged is only ~8.2%. The market has mostly “bet” on a loosening scenario.
❓Will Powell confirm this expectation in his speech, or will he maintain a cautious tone to “restrain” the market?
❓If a signal for a rate cut is given, will money flow strongly into stocks and crypto immediately?
❓Conversely, if Powell is more “hawkish” than expected, will the market experience a deep correction?
👉 What do you think Powell will be – “dovish” or “hawkish” at this Jackson Hole? Please share your views!
