In the cryptocurrency world, there are always people chasing the highs and selling at lows, losing everything. In fact, I have lived very steadily these past few years by relying on a simple method — mechanically executing four steps. Newcomers just need to follow, and the success rate can exceed 80%.
When selecting coins, I only recognize one signal: the daily MACD crossing upwards at the 0 axis. After backtesting 20 mainstream coins over 3 years, this signal has a win rate of 68%, like a boat rising with the tide, always a bit faster than the market. In April 2024, ETH gave this signal, and I watched it and entered the market, gaining 40% in three weeks, earning double compared to BTC in the same period. But do not touch the upward cross below the 0 axis; I once tried a meme coin's underwater cross two years ago and got stuck for two months, which was a painful lesson.
The 20-day moving average is a lifeline. If the price stabilizes, I try with a light position; if it breaks, no matter how painful it is, I clear my position. Last November, when SOL rose to $120, it was firmly above the moving average, so I entered a bit; later, it dropped to $110 and broke the line, I gritted my teeth and cleared everything. Three days later, it fell to $90, thanks to my quick exit. This line is the bottom line for major players; if it breaks, it's a signal to retreat. Don't go against the trend.
Positioning must follow the rules: only when the price breaks through the moving average with volume (for example, BTC breaking through $60,000) can I dare to use more than half of my position; usually, I invest a maximum of 50% for trial. Taking profits is even simpler: after a 40% gain, take one-third off, at 80% take another third, and for the rest, set a trailing stop loss to follow the price. Last year, I made ADA this way, turning $5,000 into $12,000; I was not afraid of corrections because the profits taken are real money.
Stop losses should be like a reflex. If it breaks the 20-day line, cut it immediately, regardless of whether it will rebound the next day. I suffered losses in previous years; when ETC broke the moving average, I always thought, "just wait a bit longer," and as a result, it dropped from $15 to $8, losing nearly half. Later I learned that 87% of liquidations stem from this kind of thought. Now, if it breaks the line, I just hit close, even if I look back and see it was a misjudgment — discipline is worth more than a one-time lucky guess.
In the end, it relies on these points: choosing the right signals, adhering to the moving averages, managing positions well, and decisively cutting losses. The most profitable in the crypto space are not those who are smart, but those who engrave simple rules into their bones. Newcomers I mentor using this method have turned $5,000 into $130,000 in six months, relying on "not thinking, just executing."
Newcomers should not look for shortcuts; mastering this set of rules is more effective than any indicator. If you want to know specific backtesting data, feel free to contact me at @bit多多 . (Homepage profile)
