Chainlink has recorded a significant increase in the number of daily active addresses, reflecting new demand, but the decreasing activity retention rate may be a long-term warning signal.
Alongside the impressive short-term price increase, on-chain metrics such as retention rates indicate potential risks regarding the sustainability of Chainlink's current development.
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Chainlink is trending strongly upwards, bolstered by a significant increase in the number of daily active addresses.
However, the declining retention rate poses a risk that the surge is primarily based on speculation rather than long-term user value.
The price outlook continues to depend on the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the near term.
How has Chainlink (LINK) shown a recent price increase trend?
In recent weeks, Chainlink (LINK) has consistently recorded impressive price performance with an increase of up to 57.6% in just over a month since July 15.
The price of LINK has risen sharply despite the Bitcoin market lacking a clear trend, demonstrating LINK's unique appeal to the cryptocurrency community.
Source: Coinalyze
Compared to Bitcoin's movement – dropping to $112,000 and then rising back to $124,500 – Chainlink stands out thanks to the boost from the bullish wave of Altcoins in general. The short-term market and trader sentiment towards LINK are also rated positively, reinforcing growth potential.
This breakout raises the question of whether the bullish momentum comes from the intrinsic strength of the project or is mainly driven by short-term speculative factors.
Market volatility, speculative activity, and which indicators are noteworthy for LINK?
In just the last 24 hours, LINK has increased by 3% along with a 19.6% increase in Open Interest – a clear sign of strong speculative activity in the derivatives market.
An increase in Open Interest aligns with the view that traders still expect LINK's recovery potential in the short term.
Coinalyze, 2025
The Spot CVD data also records an upward trend, indicating that demand is returning to the spot market. Additionally, the positive Funding Rate signals that traders mainly hold long positions, aligning with the current optimistic atmosphere.
These parameters emphasize that, although the market is active and recovery expectations are rising, the source of momentum still mainly comes from speculative activity rather than a sustainable increase in actual usage demand.
What does the strong increase in daily active addresses of Chainlink reflect?
Since July, Glassnode's data shows a sharp increase in daily active addresses on the Chainlink network – a positive indicator for attracting new users to the ecosystem.
However, as was the case in December 2024, these sudden spikes also carry the potential for long-term holders to start moving tokens to sell, rather than entirely new capital inflows.
"Surges in active addresses can signify a wave of new participation, but it is also a warning if long-term holders decide to take profits."
Glassnode, 2025
Therefore, in addition to the positive signal regarding user growth rates, investors need to pay special attention to the dynamics of this activity to avoid scenarios of unsustainable growth.
What warnings does the declining retention rate of Chainlink convey?
Along with the increase in the number of active addresses, the Activity Retention Rate of Chainlink has continuously decreased – from 24.5% in April to just 17% currently.
A significant drop in the retention rate suggests that many current users are only participating in the short term, increasing the risk of a speculative bubble forming.
Glassnode, 2025
This index reflects the rate of users who continue to use Chainlink consistently over a period of time, and when this index declines, the network faces the risk of "ballooning" in quantity but weak in quality of truly loyal users.
The early months of 2025 are completely opposite: while the number of active addresses decreases, the retention rate increases – indicating growth from truly engaged users, even though it does not attract many new users, it helps sustain the price of LINK thereafter.
What factors will the upcoming price trend of LINK depend on?
Based on current technical analyses, LINK is likely to test the $30 mark in the coming weeks. However, LINK's next upward momentum will largely depend on the movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum – the two "engines" of the global cryptocurrency market.
If the overall market continues to maintain positivity, LINK could leverage the influx of capital into Altcoins to sustain or expand its upward momentum. Conversely, any significant negative volatility from Bitcoin or Ethereum could trigger a ripple effect causing LINK to adjust downwards.
"The price scenario for LINK is heavily dependent on the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting the connection between key assets in the cryptocurrency ecosystem."
AMBCrypto, 2025
Investors need to closely monitor macro indicators and the market movements of these two leading cryptocurrencies when making trading decisions for LINK.
Comparing the growth phases of Chainlink
Time Daily Active Addresses Retention Rate LINK Price Trend January-April 2025 Decrease Increase Gradual recovery after adjustment July 2025-Present Sharp increase Decrease Strong breakout
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors has Chainlink (LINK) strongly increased due to?
The recent strong price performance of LINK is supported by the increase in the number of daily active addresses, optimistic market sentiment, and strong speculative waves.
What does the increase in daily active addresses reflect for the Chainlink project?
A sharp increase in daily active addresses often reflects the project attracting more new users, but it can also signal that old investors are starting to move tokens to sell.
Does the declining retention rate pose any risks?
A decrease in the retention rate means many users are only participating short-term or speculatively. This is a risk when development loses sustainability and is prone to forming a "bubble."
How to know if Chainlink's growth is sustainable?
It is necessary to simultaneously observe the daily active address data and the retention rate. If both increase, it indicates stable growth; conversely, if only active addresses increase while retention decreases, caution is advised.
What factors will the price of LINK depend on in the near future?
The price movement of LINK continues to be heavily influenced by the volatility of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the overall market sentiment of Altcoins.
What does high Open Interest mean for LINK?
An increase in Open Interest indicates increased speculative activity, showing that traders expect a recovery or sharp price increase in the short term.
What should be done when the activity retention index decreases consecutively?
Investors need to consider risks, prioritize capital management when deciding to hold or trade LINK, and avoid getting caught up in short-term speculative waves.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/chainlink-tang-manh-nhung-rui-ro-cao/
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