When the Fed's hawk claws and dove wings tear at the heavens over the crypto space, every jump of Bitcoin pulls the nerves of trillions in wealth—Powell's words are the crypto market's printing press!

Powell's "ultimate showdown": fight inflation or protect jobs? The crypto market has become cannon fodder in the political game!

This Friday's Jackson Hole annual meeting, Powell's speech is not just an ordinary policy statement, but the "life-and-death game of the Federal Reserve Chair's career"! On one side, Trump constantly calls him a "dummy" and threatens to replace him; on the other side, the unemployment rate is soaring to a four-year high, while inflation is like a sticky bandage that can't be shaken off.

Long Brother's view: The Federal Reserve now resembles a tightrope-walking acrobat—cutting rates fears inflation backlash, not cutting rates fears economic collapse. And the crypto market? It is completely the "puppet of policy sentiment"! If Powell leans hawkish, Bitcoin could drop back to $110,000 in an instant; if he leans dovish, it could soar to $120,000. But the most ruthless scenario is the third one—he doesn't clarify anything, leaving the market to guess; at that time, volatility could explode, and contract players might get liquidated in minutes, questioning their life choices!

The three major scripts have been written, which side will you bet on?

Script 1: Hawkish raid—Bitcoin drops back to $110,000, bulls collectively go to the rooftop.

If Powell says: "Inflation is not under control, rate cut in September? No way!" then Bitcoin will definitely kneel! From a technical perspective, $112,000-$120,000 is the life-and-death line; falling below that will trigger algorithmic trading liquidations.

Script 2: Dovish surprise—Bitcoin surges to $120,000, altcoins celebrate.

If Powell hints, "The employment data is too bad, we must cut interest rates in September to save the market!" then Bitcoin will take off directly! Institutions have already acted—Metaplanet secretly bought 775 BTC over the weekend, and smart money is hoarding. Once the technical level breaks $120,000, $130,000 is not a dream, and altcoins will surge even more. But beware of "good news being priced in as bad news"—if the rate cut expectations have already skyrocketed, a real rate cut might actually lead to a correction, don't be greedy!

Script 3: Ambiguous stance—volatility explosion, a nightmare for contract players.

The most likely scenario is Powell playing Tai Chi: "We let the data speak." At this time, the market will be like headless flies crashing around! The options market has already revealed—large funds are frantically buying put options to hedge risks, indicating they fear black swans too. My suggestion: use a "straddle option" strategy, you can make money regardless of whether it skyrockets or plummets! Historical data shows that 30 days after the Jackson Hole meeting, Bitcoin's volatility is three times that of usual—volatility is the printing press, but you need to know how to operate it!

Long Brother's "get-rich battle plan":

Contract players: life and death speed, stop-loss is more important than life!

Ambush Bitcoin perpetual contracts 24 hours in advance, set a stop-loss at $112,000 and a take-profit at $120,000. If it breaks $120, add to the position for $130,000; if it falls below $112, short it down to $100,000.

Altcoin hunter: Target high volatility assets, but don't be greedy!

After ETH breaks $4,800, it's very likely to push towards $5,000; Layer 2 tokens like ARB will see network activity stimulated by rate cut expectations, potentially catching up. But the volatility of altcoins is twice that of BTC, and ARB recently plummeted 57%, only suitable for players with strong risk tolerance—don't bet your entire fortune, or you'll be back to square one overnight!

Ultimate trick: hedging arbitrage, steady as an old dog!

The correlation between the crypto market and US stocks is becoming stronger. You can simultaneously go long on BTC and short S&P futures; regardless of whether the traditional market rises or falls, you can make money! This is the way of professional traders, ten times smarter than single-sided bets!

Long Brother's warning: Leverage is poison, cash is king!

The current market leverage ratio is outrageously high, and a single unexpected fluctuation could trigger a chain liquidation. Don't go all in, don't go all out! Keep 50% cash, and wait until after Powell speaks to see the true market trend before taking action—live longer to earn more!

Powell's words determine the thickness of your wallet!#ETH质押退出动态观察
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