As the dollar's interest rate anchor begins to wobble, the undercurrents in the crypto market are flowing in two directions—Daley's interest rate cut prophecy and Goolsbee's inflation alarm are casting two completely different chips in the crypto circle.

The remote confrontation between the two Federal Reserve voting members exposes three key contradictions: First, Daley's insistence on a "two rate cuts" prediction and Goolsbee's cautious stance of "needing more data verification" form a policy divide; Second, the stubbornness of service inflation (especially housing costs) is testing the Federal Reserve's "soft landing" narrative; Third, the impact of Trump's tariff policy on commodity prices, along with the game of digital assets' anti-inflation attributes, has entered a new phase.

I noticed two dangerous signals: First, Goolsbee emphasized that "service inflation is not temporary," referencing a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in the core CPI (excluding energy and food) in July 2025, with housing costs accounting for over 30% of the CPI weight, indicating that inflation resilience far exceeds market expectations; Second, Daley acknowledged that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," but the neutral interest rate estimate reaches 3% or higher, which effectively shackles the room for rate cuts—if the actual rate cut is less than expected, Bitcoin may replay the script of falling dramatically in December 2024 due to "fewer rate cuts than expected."

History is repeating an astonishing pattern: When the Federal Reserve initiates the rate cut cycle in September 2024, the price of Bitcoin starts at $26,000 and surpasses $100,000 by May 2025, a rise of 285%. However, on December 19, 2024, when Powell announced "only two rate cuts in 2025", Bitcoin plunged 4.6% within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts reaching $702 million. This proves that the crypto market's sensitivity to the path of rate cuts far exceeds that of traditional assets, and it can even produce a "roller coaster" market due to policy expectation discrepancies.

Want to know whether Bitcoin will perform "in-air refueling" or "high-altitude drop" when Daley's rate cut prophecy collides with Goolsbee's inflation alarm at the $100,000 mark? Follow me for the next deep dive into the "Quantitative Relationship Between Federal Reserve Policy and Crypto Market Volatility: From Taylor Rule to Bitcoin Options Implied Volatility" astonishing model.

Now, how many times do you think the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year? See you in the comment section! #币安HODLer空投PLUME