Is the Bitcoin peak not yet reached? 4 core signals to help you clarify the direction
Recently, the discussion that 'the Bitcoin cycle peak has been reached' has been rampant, but the truth needs to be found from the technical aspect and market characteristics.
1. The larger cycle is still healthy
Monthly chart: The price remains stable above previous highs, with a clear upward trend. The monthly chart is the core for judging the larger cycle, and currently, there are no peak signals.
Weekly chart: The price is consolidating above previous highs; as long as this position is maintained, the technical structure remains healthy. Even if there is a future pullback to around $100,000, the high time frame structure of the weekly chart still shows a bullish long-term trend that will not be easily changed by short-term fluctuations.
2. Potential risks: Beware of 'false breakouts' on the weekly chart
The weekly chart has experienced 'false breakouts'; historically, this type of pattern often indicates short-term reverse volatility. But it should be noted: a false breakout ≠ cycle peak; it is more of a short-term pullback signal rather than a sign of a change in the larger cycle.
3. Market 'abnormally calm': 5 weeks of narrow fluctuations
Social media has fierce bullish and bearish debates, but the price has been fluctuating narrowly between key support and resistance levels for 5 consecutive weeks. The essence of 'extreme sentiment but stable prices' is that the market is digesting differences, waiting for directional choices.
4. Key basis for the peak not being reached: the market has not shown 'frenzied characteristics'
Personal opinion: The Bitcoin cycle peak has not yet arrived. The larger direction depends on 'structure'—as long as the high time frame structures of the monthly and weekly charts are healthy, there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
Short-term pullbacks may occur:
Shallow pullback: Price stays above $112,000, continues to rise after adjustment; deep pullback: drops to the $100,000-$108,000 range, but as long as the weekly structure is not broken, it remains a healthy adjustment.
Why assert that 'the peak has not been reached'? The real market peak is usually accompanied by:
Public frenzy; price out of control with Bitcoin rapidly soaring, altcoins collectively surging, mainstream coins like Ethereum breaking historical highs; sector rotation coming to an end.
The market always creates emotional traps of 'fear and greed', with latecomers being washed out and early entrants exiting being the norm. My judgment may be wrong, but I will adjust strategies based on the structure.
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