$ETH at $4,291 — Will the consolidation turn into upward momentum, or will the correction deepen?

1) Current Market Situation

$ETH is currently trading around $4,291, marking a pullback of about 4–5% compared to yesterday’s highs. The market has entered a phase of “equilibrium of expectations” – with neither bulls nor bears taking clear control.

  • On the 1H timeframe, price remains within a narrow range. RSI (52) shows neutrality, while MACD is flat, signaling a lack of directional impulse. Volume slightly increased during attempts to break higher but still lingers below average, which does not provide confirmation for a trend continuation.

  • On the 4H timeframe, $ETH clearly rejected the $4,400 resistance zone. Price structure shows consolidation with breakout potential, but a stronger volume is needed for confirmation. RSI (54) and positive MACD lean slightly bullish, but not decisively.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • 38.2%: $4,250 – intraday support.

  • 50%: $4,200 – critical level; breaking below could accelerate downside pressure.

  • 61.8%: $4,150 – losing this level would favor the correction scenario.

  • Extension 1.618: $4,880 – a potential bullish target if momentum resumes.

2) Yesterday’s Recap (August 17, 2025)

Yesterday, Ethereum approached the $4,400–4,420 resistance zone, where buyers met strong selling pressure. The breakout attempt failed, and price pulled back into consolidation. This is a textbook market reaction — without solid volume support, breakouts lack sustainability.

In essence, ETH has built a stable floor, but it still lacks a catalyst to drive the next wave higher. Institutional players continue accumulating, while short-term traders have been taking profits.

3) Volume and Sentiment

Volume analysis shows moderate activity, not yet confirming a decisive breakout. Upward moves have been supported only by average turnover, signaling that buyers are not fully engaged.

On-chain data, however, reveals that whales accumulated more than 25,000 ETH in recent days, which suggests preparations for a possible bullish push. Such whale activity often precedes visible price movement.

4) Forecast and Scenarios

🔹 Bullish Scenario

If ETH holds above $4,300–4,320 and breaks through $4,335–4,340 (EMA7/VWAP), the path toward higher levels opens. Potential targets:

  • TP1: $4,400 – local resistance.

  • TP2: $4,550 – next key resistance based on previous highs.

  • TP3: $4,880 – Fibonacci 1.618 extension target.

🔹 Bearish Scenario

Breaking below $4,200 would trigger stop-loss orders and may deepen the correction. Bearish targets:

  • TP1: $4,150 – 61.8% retracement.

  • TP2: $4,100 – lower boundary of recent consolidation.

  • TP3: $4,050 – psychological support and short-term bearish target.

5) LONG Setup

  • Entry: 1H close above $4,335.

  • Stop-Loss: $4,200.

  • TP1: $4,400.

  • TP2: $4,550.

  • TP3: $4,880.
    ✅ Recommendation: Long favored only with volume confirmation and RSI >55.

6) SHORT Setup

  • Entry: 1H close below $4,200.

  • Stop-Loss: $4,335.

  • TP1: $4,150.

  • TP2: $4,100.

  • TP3: $4,050.
    ✅ Recommendation: Short only valid with visible volume decline and RSI <45.

7) Summary

Ethereum stands at a turning point. The technical structure remains constructive, but volume confirmation is essential. Holding above $4,300 could provide momentum for further gains, while a breakdown below $4,200 might open the way for a deeper correction.

At this stage, the market leans slightly bullish, yet consolidation remains a strong possibility.

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