#CPIWatch

Bitcoin vs Inflation Narrative

📊 Latest CPI (US, July 2025):

YoY: 2.9% (up from 2.7% in June).

Core CPI: 3.1% (still sticky above Fed’s 2% target).

Inflation cooling overall, but not enough for the Fed to fully pivot.

🧨Impact on $BTC

Macro correlation:

When CPI runs hot → Fed stays hawkish → risk assets like BTC feel pressure.

When CPI cools → rate cut bets rise → BTC strengthens as liquidity returns.

This print means:

Inflation is easing, but slower than markets hoped.

Fed likely cautious → rate cuts delayed → BTC still range-bound.

🧨BTC positioning:

Market priced in faster cuts → disappointment could trigger short-term volatility.

Long-term thesis intact: BTC = hedge vs monetary debasement + fiat erosion.

Why it matters

BTC is now macro-linked. Institutions trade it alongside gold, equities, bonds.

Every CPI release = direct volatility driver for BTC.

Traders watch CPI → Fed reaction → DXY → BTC.

Verdict

Short-term: Neutral to slightly bearish (no aggressive rate cuts yet).

Mid-term: Accumulation zone remains strong; liquidity injections ahead.

Long-term: As long as CPI stays above Fed target, Bitcoin keeps its hedge appeal.

👉 Next CPI print = next BTC volatility event. Stay sharp.