After BTC recently fell below 117,000 USD, a technical M-top structure has formed from the 3-day line to the weekly level, and the short-term trend has directly turned bearish. Now everyone is most concerned about: how far will this pullback go? Currently, there are mainly two opinions: one is looking at 98,000 USD, based on the starting point of 98,500 USD on June 20, and a 1:1 pullback from the high of 124,500 USD; the other is more aggressive, directly looking at a drop to 60,000-40,000 USD, reasoning that the previous bull market dropped 50% near 64,000 USD, so this round is also calculated at 50%, making a 50% drop from 124,550 USD around 62,300 USD—this view directly suggests that the bull market has ended.
But I think both views are too extreme! We can't just look at 60,000 or 40,000 when it drops, and 140,000 or 150,000 when it rises; it's too emotional. If it's spot trading, you can completely hold on without moving, because there will definitely be another wave of topping from October to November. It’s fine to be bearish in the short term, but the MACD indicator on the daily line hasn’t returned to zero, indicating that the weekly level adjustment hasn’t been fully confirmed yet, and we need to observe step by step.
At key points, if the weekly adjustment is established, it first needs to break below the support level of 112,000 USD, then we need to see if 106,000 USD can hold. There is important news this Thursday; if it’s positive and 112,000 USD holds, then the rebound will continue; if there's no good news, institutions may give up on the resistance at 112,000-110,000 USD, and the 110,000 USD level may fail, entering deeper consolidation; if 106,000 USD also breaks, then the bull market is basically over. Overall, the extreme low point may be around 106,000 USD.
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