This week could change the market scenario in 2025.
What lies ahead: housing, jobs, oil, the Federal Reserve minutes, earnings announcements, and Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the 'Super Bowl of central banks'.
Tuesday - Beginning of housing projects (3:30 PM Riyadh time)
This indicator tracks the number of new residential buildings that have started construction.
• Single-family homes = regular houses (an indicator of core demand).
• Multi-family = apartments and condos (usually volatile).
Housing is considered a major driver of jobs and growth.
Wednesday - Crude oil inventories (5:30 PM Riyadh time)
This indicator measures the commercial inventory of crude oil in America on a weekly basis.
• Increase in inventory (supply ↑) → prices drop.
• Decrease in inventory (supply ↓) → prices rise.
Energy stocks usually move with oil prices.
Thursday - Jobless claims (3:30 PM Riyadh time)
• Initial claims = new claims.
• Continuing claims = people still on benefits.
This is the quickest reading of the labor market's condition.
• If it rises → the market weakens, layoffs increase → bonds rise, the dollar weakens, a move towards easing.
• If it’s low → the market is strong, yields are stable, the dollar strengthens, the Fed holds off longer.