This morning, ETH suddenly plummeted, dropping to $4228 in one go, causing many people to panic.
A bunch of fans in the group asked: "Is it that Trump has released bad news again?" and "Will ETH unstaking cause a crash?"
On the surface, it looks like a "black swan" event, but it actually resembles an "old excuse"; the main players are using news to manipulate the market.
First, let's talk about the two "triggers" for this drop:
① Trump made a statement, which was sensationalized by the media as "bad for crypto," leading to emotional selling being magnified instantly;
② Various news about "ETH unstaking" flooded in, and many people were afraid that the whales would unlock and sell off, following the trend to exit the market.
As a result, the two waves of emotions combined, causing ETH to drop from $4450 to $4228 in a short time, with a decline of over 5%.
But upon reflection, these two so-called "bad news" were already anticipated:
What Trump said was essentially about regulation and compliance, which are old topics that the market has already digested, and they do not constitute new risks; it’s just the "celebrity effect" that is frightening.
As for unstaking, the on-chain data is clear: this time the unlocked amount is 23,000 coins, which only accounts for 0.03% of the circulating supply. In the past, every time there was an unlock, people panicked, but in the end, most continued to stake, with very few actually crashing the market.
More importantly: $4228 is a technical support level.
This position happens to be at the lower line of the descending channel, as well as a "stabilization point" where there have been multiple previous corrections. Although the selling pressure was strong, once it hit the support, buying pressure immediately came in, and the price returned to the standard position near $4330. In other words, the panic selling has mostly exhausted, and the bulls have already started to buy.
What ordinary investors need to do now is not to panic, but to watch for support:
If the $4220–4300 range can hold, it’s an opportunity for gradual low buying;
If it really goes down again, there is stronger support around $4100; as long as it doesn't break below, there’s no problem with the overall trend. Don’t forget, ETH is just one step away from its previous high of $4730; the main players love to use "fake bad news" to wash out retail investors before key points, shaking off the shaky hands.
This drop seems dangerous, but it is actually a "screening of chips." Once the emotions settle, ETH is likely to return to an upward oscillating rhythm.
So, don’t panic; the more urgent the market, the calmer you need to be. A drop doesn’t necessarily mean risk; it could very well be an opportunity.