Why do cryptocurrency traders always get ripped off? The root cause often lies in a lack of understanding of the rules of the game. It's like playing a pre-planned game: those who don't understand the rules are destined to be the leeks to be harvested, while those who do understand the rules can find a chance of success amidst uncertainty.
Let's take a simple example: In the first coin tossing game, heads wins 1 yuan, tails loses 2 yuan. While this may seem like a 50% win rate, the 1:2 profit-loss ratio hides a trap—long-term losses are inevitable. The second game is even more extreme: winning pays 100 yuan, losing only 1 yuan. The winning condition is that the coin must be upright and facing northeast at 31.28 degrees. With such a near-impossible win rate, even a high profit-loss ratio is just bait, and no matter how long you play, you'll still lose money. The third game is different: heads wins 2 yuan, tails loses 1 yuan. With the same 50% win rate, the profit-loss ratio is 2:1, clearly favoring the rules—in this case, with good bankroll management, long-term profits are guaranteed.
The differences between these three games precisely hit the heart of trading: establish a set of "positive expectation rules," then consistently execute them using a risk profile that suits you, turning your probabilistic advantage into tangible profits. Simply put, it's about "gambling" with a winning probability, and continuing to gamble.
The logic behind this set of rules is simple: don't hesitate when entering a trade to test and fail; if you're wrong, cut your losses decisively without lingering; when you're profitable, hold on patiently, even adding to your position as the trend continues, letting the profits run wild. More importantly, manage your position to ensure you can afford to lose when things go wrong, avoiding being eliminated by a single misstep. Once things go right, you can capitalize on your probabilistic advantage. By doing this, you have a theoretical chance of winning in trading.
Of course, the specific details of how to do this vary from person to person. Some people prefer to trade light and slowly, trading time for space; some prefer heavy investments, seeking short-term explosive growth; some go all-in on a single commodity, betting on a trend; some diversify across multiple commodities to hedge risk; some set rules on the daily chart to capture major trends; some look for opportunities on the minute chart to capitalize on short-term fluctuations; some rely on trial and error based on fundamental news, while others use systematic quantitative trading... These aren't the key points; they're just minor details in the trading process.
What truly matters are two things: consistent execution and probabilistic advantage. The essence of trading is to consistently generate winning odds in uncertain markets by relying on a set of rules that increase your chances of success.