In this round of market conditions, the 'old logic' seems to have failed: the rise of Ethereum (ETH) no longer necessarily triggers a collective explosion of altcoins. This reflects deep structural changes in the market, with clear and profound reasons.
Capital structure 'institutionalized': The main force driving the market has shifted from the 'flood irrigation' of retail investors to ETF funds, institutional capital, and large compliant funds. This type of capital focuses more on risk control and capital efficiency, with a precise targeting strategy rather than a broad-based influx into all sectors.
Narrative highly focused: Market capital and attention are firmly locked on a few strong narratives such as AI, RWA (real-world assets), and stablecoins. Other areas face a severe 'blood loss' dilemma, presenting an extreme differentiation pattern of 'core tracks eating meat, peripheral sectors drinking soup' or even having no soup to drink.
Heavy historical selling pressure: After multiple rounds of steep declines, a large number of investors are stuck at high positions. As the price of currencies rebounds slightly, the selling pressure from investors looking to break even surges, like a heavy ceiling, continuously suppressing the space for most altcoins to rise.
Investor sentiment tends to be 'risk-averse': The painful lessons of the bear market have profoundly changed players' mindsets. Compared to betting on high-risk projects lacking fundamentals, funds are more inclined to chase leading projects with relatively stable fundamentals. Driven by risk-averse demand, liquidity naturally concentrates towards the leading projects.
In short: The golden age of altcoins 'sharing the rain and dew' is a thing of the past. The current market is a game of existing funds, where the strong get stronger. Funds and attention are converging at an unprecedented speed towards a few leading tracks and their most competitive leading projects, while many projects lacking substantial support face the fate of being eliminated.
About 'bottom fishing': In the face of the general correction of altcoins, selection is key. Rather than blindly casting a wide net, it is better to focus on those that demonstrate strong fundamental support and relatively strong technical patterns in their respective tracks.
