Regarding callbacks, the most real aspect of mainstream altcoins is: all mainstream altcoins are in a collective downturn and this has lasted for a very long time. Even if certain coins have some gains due to specific good news, it doesn't really matter because they will quickly fall back in line with the overall market decline. This kind of speculative opportunity is usually expressed as, 'Look, a certain coin seems to have good news, there should be a wave, should we jump in?' At this time, there are usually a portion of 'wise men' who are eager to participate. The results are usually not good; it is obvious that before Bitcoin rises, any good news for any coin is just a smokescreen, so this is one of the simplest and most straightforward ways to give money to the market makers.
How to determine the bottom?
The judgment of the bottom mainly refers to several standards: market sentiment (the most important reference standard), whether it is a sharp decline, and the extent of the drop. In the case where the bubble has not been completely cleared, any drop or rise is just a performance.
What is the standard for determining whether the bubble has been completely cleared? Do we really have to squeeze out the bubble to welcome the dawn? Here, we need to talk about value; what is value?
Value refers to: the losses that most people in the market cannot bear, leading them to break their psychological threshold and make a wrong selling decision. That selling price is called the support line of the coin. It is also what it is actually worth. This can be due to leverage, excessive investment costs, or despair; regardless of the reason, these people are collectively referred to as 'chives'.
Does the bubble have to be completely squeezed out before a big bull market can start? It doesn't have to be completely squeezed out; it can still rise if the bubble is not fully squeezed, unless it has been in a sideways range for a long enough time. In simpler terms, it's about the monthly line, being in a sideways state for several months; I won't elaborate on this here.
After understanding the theory, the rest is arithmetic; how much is it really worth? In this cycle, with unsatisfactory gains? Combined with the emotional aspect and the associated bloodbath effect, how much should it reasonably drop? Reasonable is over 30%; some may say it's not that much, but at least that's what I think. Assuming it is worth participating in by professional investors, there must be a psychological standard. This is often referred to as participation motivation in psychology, also known as driving force; meeting this standard means that point must be very low.
So, do we have to wait until it falls below our psychological threshold to make a buying decision? How exactly to operate? The question is simple: after a crash, if it aligns with a sharp decline and meets the expectations stated above, when everyone feels hopeless, the bull market is about to start again, then get on board, what are you waiting for? The more it falls, the happier you should be, even though you may have already lost 10%-30%.