Tonight's Crypto Life-and-Death Battle! $BTC : Market Crash or Breakthrough Ascension?

Global capital focuses on multiple key events that will trigger a massive shakeup in the crypto market, as the battle between bullish and bearish forces for Bitcoin reaches a decisive moment.

1. Geopolitical Changes, BTC's Safe-Haven Attribute Under Test

Zelensky's surprise visit to the United States and closed-door talks with Trump introduce uncertainties in the Eastern European situation. If signals of conflict escalation or military aid are released, safe-haven sentiment will rise, leading to inflows into gold and BTC. Historical data shows that during geopolitical crises, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 can drop to -0.8; if U.S. stocks decline, BTC may become an alternative safe haven.

2. Eurozone Trade Data to be Released, Risks of Stablecoins Emerging

The Eurozone trade balance will be announced today at 17:00. If the deficit widens, expectations for an ECB rate cut may be dashed, tightening liquidity could lead to euro depreciation, triggering risks of USDT runs. Currently, there are unusual movements in stablecoin reserves on exchanges, with Deribit options open interest increasing by 190%, and high volatility call option trading is active.

3. U.S. Housing Index Sets Tone, Federal Reserve Policy Affects BTC

The U.S. housing index will be released at 2 AM tomorrow. If it falls below the 44 growth line, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September will rise to 70%, which may weaken the dollar's credibility, benefiting cryptocurrencies. Currently, BTC's market cap accounts for nearly 60%.

4. On-Chain Movements, Institutions Locking in Three Major Betting Paths

In the past 24 hours, 32,000 BTC futures short positions were closed on Bitfinex, and Deribit's options open interest broke $57 billion, with institutions focusing on:

1. Conflict escalation → U.S. stocks fall → BTC attracts safe-haven buying

2. Economic recession → Weak dollar → BTC's market cap share increases

3. Liquidity crisis → Stablecoins de-peg → DeFi presents buying opportunities

Tonight, BTC will either crash dramatically or break upward, as the clash between old and new finance awaits resolution.