#ETFFlows #ETHBTC #Altseason #CryptoPlan #RiskManagement
ETF flow headlines can flip intraday—green in the morning, red by close. Chasing every update wrecks discipline. Here’s a simple framework to convert noisy flow prints into clean trades you can repeat all week.
Understand the sequence
Flow → Liquidity → Price: Sustained net inflows tighten spreads and deepen books first; price expansion follows after a base forms.
One print ≠ trend: A single red day after multiple green sessions usually signals digestion, not reversal. Two consecutive red prints with falling ETH/BTC is the caution signal.
The “3‑Switch” dashboard
Check these three once per session (not every minute):
ETH ETF net flow direction: green/flat/red and magnitude relative to prior 5‑day average.
ETH/BTC structure: higher‑lows and a 4h close above prior swing high = rotation on; lower‑highs with volume = rotation off.
BTC dominance: steady drift down while BTC holds a base favors alts; dominance spikes warn to cut beta.
Positioning by scenario
A) Green flows + ETH/BTC up + BTC.D down
Action: Add risk methodically.
Structure: 60–70% ETH core, 20–30% in 1–2 liquid leaders (SOL/L2 token), 10% tactical in a narrative leader.
Entries: Reclaim‑and‑hold above prior weekly high; add on retest.
B) Green flows + ETH/BTC flat + BTC.D flat
Action: Accumulate only core positions; wait for ETH/BTC breakout to expand.
Structure: 50–60% ETH; small probes in leaders showing relative strength.
C) Red flows + ETH/BTC up + BTC.D down
Action: Respect price leadership—maintain positions but stop adding size.
Risk: Tighten trailing stops to last 4h higher‑low; trim into resistance.
D) Red flows + ETH/BTC down + BTC.D up
Action: De‑risk. Exit tactical beta first, then reduce large caps to core.
Wait for two green flow prints or ETH/BTC higher‑low reclaim before re‑adding.
Entries and exits that survive whipsaws
Entry trigger: 1h/4h reclaim of prior weekly high with rising volume. No reclaim, no trade.
Add trigger: Successful retest that wicks into the level and closes back above.
Invalidation: Last 4h higher‑low in volume break. Exit—don’t average lower.
Profit map: Trim 25–30% at first resistance; trail the remainder under the latest 4h higher‑low.
L2 confirmation for conviction
Rising daily active addresses, DEX volumes, and stablecoin balances on Base/Arbitrum/Optimism for 2–3 sessions.
New app launches or incentives. Combine with ETH inflows for high‑odds continuation.
Practical alert set (copy/paste)
ETH price: Alert A at prior weekly high; Alert B at +1% for add.
ETH/BTC: Alert on 4h close above last swing high; second alert on retest hold.
BTC dominance: Alert on 1h trendline breakdown to signal alt add‑ons only if flows are green/flat.
Mindset rules
Trade the sequence, not the headline. Two green prints beat one.
One clean setup > five noisy ones. Keep positions to 3–5 tickers max.
Review once per session. Over‑monitoring flows leads to over‑trading.