#CryptoPlan #ETHBTC汇率新低 #Altseason #RiskManagement #L2Season
Most of the week’s PnL is made—or lost—in the first two hours of Monday. Liquidity resets, ETF flows update, and ETH/BTC decides whether rotation is on or off. Here’s a tight, repeatable plan to capture the move without getting trapped.
Pre‑open checklist (5 minutes)
Levels: Mark last week’s high/low and midline for BTC, ETH, and your top 3 alts.
ETH/BTC: Note the most recent 4h swing high/low; that’s your rotation trigger.
Dominance: Draw a simple 1h trendline on BTC.D; a breakdown favors alts, a bounce favors patience.
The two-hour execution plan
First 30 minutes: Observe. No entries. Let spreads tighten and levels get tested.
Minute 31–60: Trade only reclaim‑and‑hold. If ETH reclaims last week’s high and closes a 15m candle above it on rising volume, take Tranche 1.
Minute 61–120: Add on the retest. If price wicks into the reclaimed level and closes back above, take Tranche 2. If the retest fails, exit and re‑alert—no averaging down.
Portfolio structure for rotation weeks
Core engine: 50–60% ETH. Increase to 70% if ETH/BTC breaks out and holds for 2 sessions.
Liquidity lane: 20–30% in 1–2 large caps showing relative strength (e.g., SOL/LINK or a leading L2 token). Enter only on weekly‑high reclaim.
Tactical beta: 10–15% in one narrative leader (DeFi perps/oracles, social‑fi, tokenization) after market breadth expands for 2 days.
Risk that actually protects you
Invalidation: Last 4h higher low. Break on volume = exit, not negotiate.
Position size: Keep Monday size moderate; scale only after confirmation.
Profit map: Trim 25–30% into the first resistance; move stop to break‑even on the rest. Let winners run with a trailing stop under the latest 4h higher low.
Signals that flip the switch
ETH ETF flows turn green while BTC flows are flat → ETH leadership.
ETH/BTC prints higher high + successful retest → alt breadth likely next.
BTC dominance drifts down while BTC stays in a base → risk-on expansion.
L2 confirmation for extra confidence
Rising daily active addresses and DEX volume on Base/Arbitrum/Optimism for 2–3 sessions.
Stablecoin balances climbing on L2s (pre‑buying power).
Fresh app incentives or points epochs launching this week.
Example alert set (copy/paste)
ETH: Alert A at last week’s high; Alert B at +1% for add-on. Invalidation: last 4h HL.
ETH/BTC: Alert at 4h close above prior swing high; add L2 exposure if the retest holds.
BTC.D: Alert on breakdown of 1h trendline; rotate more aggressively into alts only if ETH flows are green.