After BTC effectively breaks below 117,000, a double top (M top) structure has formed from the 3-day line to the weekly level, so it quickly turns bearish in the short term. So where will the lowest pullback find a bottom? Many people see 98,000, based on the left-side starting point of 98,500 from 6.20, and a 1:1 ratio pullback after reaching the high of 124,500. Some also see a pullback to the 60,000 or 40,000 levels. Those who see 60,000 or 40,000 are influenced by the last bull market, as it fell about 50% near 64,000, so they will habitually expect a 50% decline this time as well, which would mean a 50% drop from 124,550 to around 62,300. This view is the most aggressive, directly concluding that the current bull market is completely over.

However, my view is that we cannot simply look at 60,000 or 40,000 after a pullback, nor can we jump to 140,000 or 150,000 after a rise; that would be too extreme. If it's spot trading, one can continue to hold without moving, as there will definitely be a peak rally in October and November. Looking bearish in the short term is reasonable, but the daily MACD has not yet returned to zero, so we cannot fully confirm that it will upgrade the adjustment to a weekly level pullback; we still need to observe step by step. If we adjust by weekly levels, starting from 98,500 for a 1:1 ratio pullback, we first need to break through the 112,000 position, and then look at the 106,000 support. These are the two most important points coming up. There is important information this Thursday; if a positive signal is released and the 112,000 support holds, we will continue to rebound upwards. If there is no positive news, institutions will inevitably abandon the resistance between 112,000 and 110,000, and 110,000 will prepare to break down, entering a deeper consolidation. If we break below 106,000, we can basically conclude that the entire bull market has ended. If it really goes this way, it would completely contradict the market after the rate cut in September, so my personal prediction for the extreme low point is around 106,000 (based on the effective break below 112,000).