I've seen quite a few brothers asking how $DOT is doing recently. Let's look at the logic below:

What was EOS back then? A top-notch team, a trending narrative, top-level resources, with BM (Daniel Larimer) personally leading the team, shouting the slogan to overturn Ethereum, raising 4 billion USD. And what happened? As time went on, it became a relic on the chain, no one cared anymore.

Now looking at DOT, it somewhat resembles the EOS of that time. It also has a top-tier lineup, with Gavin Wood personally leading the team, and the narrative is cross-chain, parachain slots, shared security, which sounds very impressive. The problem is, in the crypto world, it has never been about who has better technology, but rather who can sell the story and get the funds rolling.

A few reality checks:

1. Story has gone stale

The cross-chain narrative was hot in 2020-2021, but now it has been overshadowed by new concepts like L2, OP Stack, EigenLayer. To put it bluntly, the problems DOT aimed to solve back then are now considered unimportant by the market.

2. Low on-chain activity

Polkadot still has on-chain developers and an ecosystem, but compared to Solana, Ethereum, or even Base, the heat is not on the same level at all. Without funds coming in, naturally, no one cares about the narrative.

3. Token model is a hindrance

DOT has high inflation, weak demand, and staking locks haven't formed a true "rigid demand." Unlike ETH with gas fees or SOL with high-frequency applications, DOT lacks a core buying logic.

So why hasn’t DOT completely cooled off?

It has strong backing, with top VCs and funds holding positions, they won't let it easily go to zero.

Gavin Wood is still a top developer in the crypto space, and the team's technology remains strong.

As a "veteran in cross-chain," it still holds a place in institutional narratives.

My view:

Short-term: DOT is unlikely to become a core currency in mainstream trends. Funds are more inclined to trade SOL, ETH, old and new public chains, and RWA. DOT may just follow along and won’t create an independent market.

Mid-term: If there is a new narrative (like combining cross-chain with AI and RWA), there’s still a chance for it to be speculated again.

Long-term: It will either be completely marginalized or rely on the team to pull off a "new narrative 2.0," otherwise the coin price is destined to be "not very useful."

Anyway, my feeling is that DOT is like EOS back then, it won't die immediately, but it’s also hard to get hot. You can either use it as a defensive position, or don't expect it to break out into an independent bull market like SOL.