Brothers, Bitcoin's recent trend is just as thrilling as a roller coaster ride! Recently, the volatility of Bitcoin's price has shaken the entire cryptocurrency market, and in the next two weeks, we may face a 'blood rain and wind' type of massive sell-off, with many dangerous signals already at a high.
Looking back at Bitcoin's recent market performance, its trend can be described as tumultuous. On August 14, Bitcoin successfully rose to a historical high of $124,500, and the market cheered, as investors seemed to see the dawn of a new bull market. However, just a few hours later, the situation changed dramatically; Bitcoin's price suddenly turned downward, rapidly breaking below the critical support level of $117,500, with an intraday decline of 4.24%, hitting a low of $117,000, resulting in a flash crash of up to $7,000. This dramatic reversal caught many investors off guard and triggered strong concerns in the market regarding Bitcoin's future trend.
Why do we say that Bitcoin may face huge selling pressure in the next two weeks? Firstly, from the perspective of capital flow in the market, some disturbing signals have emerged recently. In the past 12 hours, there has been a net outflow of Bitcoin amounting to $17.05 million, with large market sell orders totaling $41.3 million, significantly surpassing buy orders of $24.24 million. This imbalance in trading volume indicates that market sentiment is leaning towards shorting, and the frequent appearance of large sell orders has further intensified the downward pressure on prices. At the same time, on August 1, accounts holding over 1,000 BTC contributed to over 70% of the deposits in exchanges, with more than 40,000 Bitcoins being sent to exchanges at low prices on that day. Moreover, in the past month, 223,000 BTC has flowed into short-term speculative wallets, setting a new high since 2024, and such behavior is usually a precursor to large-scale profit-taking in the market. The actions of these whales and short-term speculators undoubtedly bring great potential selling pressure to the Bitcoin market; once they concentrate their sell-off, Bitcoin's price will face significant downside risks.
Secondly, macro policy factors also have a significant impact on Bitcoin's trend. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. surged by 3.3% year-on-year in July, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022. This data stands in stark contrast to the mildly reported CPI three days ago, when the overall CPI for July fell to 2.9%, and the core CPI declined for four consecutive months to 3.2%. This uncertainty in macro data has made the market doubt the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction. Treasury Secretary Besant has clearly stated that the government has no plans to expand Bitcoin's strategic reserves and has categorically denied the possibility of reallocating gold revaluation gains to Bitcoin; this statement contrasts sharply with the 'budget-neutral strategy for purchasing more Bitcoin' mentioned in the executive order signed by Trump in March this year. The failure of policy expectations will undoubtedly undermine market confidence in Bitcoin, leading some investors to choose to exit, thereby increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Furthermore, from a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is also facing many unfavorable factors. At the time of hitting a historical high, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin has shown a bearish divergence, and a double top pattern has formed on the three-day chart, which previously triggered a 35% crash in January 2025. When the price broke below the critical support level of $117,500, it triggered forced liquidations of long positions amounting to as much as $880 million, leading to a 'long squeeze' catastrophe. Currently, on the 2-hour candlestick chart for Bitcoin, the RSI has fallen below the midpoint of 50, indicating that market momentum is accumulating, and there may be greater downside risks in the short term. In addition, the bearish arrangement of the EMA24 and EMA52 further suppresses the rebound space, showing that the selling pressure from the main force has not weakened. Various technical indicators suggest that the short-term trend for Bitcoin is not optimistic.
Considering all the above factors, Bitcoin does indeed have a full set of dangerous signals in the next two weeks and is very likely to face a 'blood rain and wind'-like massive sell-off. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and make cautious investment decisions to cope with the possible market storm.
