๐น Current Market Context
๐ฐ Price: $115,136.44 (โผ -2.20% in 24h)
๐ 24h Range: $115,000 (low) โ $118,575 (high)
๐ Volume: 11,045 BTC / $1.29B USDT โ moderately high, signaling active market
Key Moving Averages (EMAs):
๐ EMA(7): $117,353.69 โ immediate short-term resistance
๐ต EMA(25): $117,012.52 โ medium resistance, aligned with EMA(7) cluster
๐ข EMA(99): $110,451.46 โ long-term strong support
๐ Technical Indicators & Signals
RSI(6): 34.46
Approaching oversold (<30). This suggests bears are losing momentum, and a relief rally is possible.
Stochastic RSI: 14.79 (MA: 26.01)
Deep oversold, historically signals sharp bounce potential within 24โ48h.
Price Action vs EMAs
โ Price below EMA7 & EMA25 = short-term bearish momentum.
โ Price above EMA99 = long-term bullish structure still intact.
โ ๏ธ A retest of EMA99 ($110K) is possible if $115K fails.
Market Psychology
Traders are cautious near $115K โ psychological round number support.
Weak hands may panic-sell if $115K breaks โ liquidity zone near $111Kโ110K.
Smart money could accumulate between $111Kโ115K if oversold persists.
๐ฎ Price Prediction
Short-Term (1โ3 Days)
๐ Likely scenario: Bounce from $115K zone due to oversold RSI/Stoch RSI.
๐ง Resistance: $117Kโ117.35K (EMA cluster). Break above unlocks $118,575.
โ Breakdown risk: Failure to hold $115K โ fast drop to $111,920โ110,451.
Medium-Term (1 Week)
๐ผ Bullish bias: Daily close above $117,350 = potential trend reversal.
๐ฝ Bearish bias: Break below $110,451 (EMA99) = trend change, may target $105K.
๐ฏ Trade Plan
โ Scenario 1: Oversold Bounce (High Probability)
๐ Entry: $115,000 โ $115,500
๐ฏ Targets:
T1 โ $116,750 (minor resistance)
T2 โ $117,350 (EMA7/25 cluster)
T3 โ $118,575 (24h high)
๐ Stop Loss: $114,400 (below liquidity sweep zone)
โ๏ธ Risk/Reward: ~1:3 โ Excellent swing setup
โ ๏ธ Scenario 2: Breakdown Continuation (Low Probability)
๐ Entry: On breakdown below $115K with strong volume
๐ฏ Targets:
T1 โ $112,500 (psychological support)
T2 โ $111,920 (chart support)
T3 โ $110,451 (EMA99 major level)
๐ Stop Loss: $115,600 (to protect against fake-outs)
โ๏ธ Risk/Reward: ~1:2
๐ก๏ธ Risk Management
๐ Position Size: Max 3% of total capital per trade.
โณ Confirmation: Use 1H close above $116K (bullish) or below $115K (bearish) before entry.
๐ Volume Check: Look for 20%+ spike above average volume on bounce/breakdown.
๐ก Hedge Plan: If in doubt, reduce leverage & stagger entries (e.g., buy 50% at $115K, rest at $112K).
โ Summary
Bias: Cautiously bullish in near-term due to oversold RSI/Stoch RSI + strong $115K support.
Ideal Setup: Long near $115K โ target $117,350+ with strict stop.
Critical Levels to Watch:
Support: $115,000 โ $111,920 โ $110,451
Resistance: $117,350 โ $118,575
๐จ Key Note: Bitcoin is consolidating between $115Kโ118K. Oversold bounce is favored, but if $115K cracks with volume โ expect fast drop to $111K.
TRADE FROM HERE ๐ $BTC
