4488 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, 4300 is the chessboard of life and death for bulls and bears!
Full analysis of the market script
Chapter One: Morning Session Dilemma
At this moment, ETH feels like it's nailed to the chopping block at $4321 (current price), with a mountain of $160 pressing down from the key level of 4488.
This position is akin to the "river boundary" in chess—three attempts to touch 4380 this morning have all bounced back, clearly indicating that the market manipulators are "pressing the plate to absorb funds". The order ratio of -0.76% further confirms this point: retail investors are trying to flee with their orders, while the main players are subtly placing sell orders to push down the price.
Chapter Two: Latest Ammunition
Grayscale transferred 24,000 ETH to exchanges in the early morning.
The hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve have put pressure on risk assets, but Vitalik just tweeted that "the September hard fork may shorten the staking unlock period."
The conflicting messages from bulls and bears explain why the price is stuck in a narrow range of 4306-4380.
Chapter Three: My Practical Strategy
In this situation, remember two moves:
"No rabbit, no eagle": A breakthrough at 4488 must meet two conditions—
1-hour trading volume > 150% of the morning average volume.
Stand firm at 4500 for more than 2 candlesticks (to prevent false spikes).
"Breakout should act like a straw in the wind": If the volume breaks below 4300, immediately follow up with a short position, and close at 4260 to make quick money!
If you don't know what an effective breakout is, you can seek guidance and I'll help you get on board step by step.
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