The Federal Reserve's policy direction always influences global market nerves, akin to "a sneeze causing a cold globally." Now, all market eyes are focused on the central bank's annual meeting—Powell's statement tonight will directly determine the direction of this "sneeze" and may also set the tone for the recently corrected crypto market.

Global funds are "on a hot pan": just waiting for old Powell's words.

CITIC Securities' latest report highlights the core contradiction in the current market: global funds are like ants on a hot pan, collectively waiting for Powell to release policy signals. The previous July CPI data made the market sense a hint of rate cuts, igniting expectations for a September cut, but then the PPI data doused that expectation with "sticky inflation."

Currently, Wall Street has split into two factions:

• Hawkish expectations: believing the Federal Reserve will maintain its "anti-inflation" stance and will not easily back down even if the data fluctuates;

• Dovish Bet: Betting that the central bank will recognize economic pressure and release signals for policy easing in advance.

U.S. stocks are "anxious before the exam," while the crypto circle is "getting into position."

Recent trends in the U.S. stock market resemble students waiting for exam results, jumping up and down, sensitive to emotions. Meanwhile, the crypto market has long entered a "standby state": Bitcoin is oscillating near the $110,000 mark "playing dead," while ETH is stabilizing in the $4,400 range, clearly waiting for macroeconomic winds to clarify.

It's important to know that last year, Powell's hawkish remarks at the central bank's annual meeting directly triggered an 8% drop in the crypto market in one day; conversely, if he tonight mentions "controllable inflation," the market may instantly flood trading software.

Three types of assets have already "written their scripts", just waiting for signal triggers.

Interest rate-sensitive assets have already acted in advance, hiding market consensus:

• Gold ETF holdings have quietly reached new highs;

• The volume of options betting on tech stocks has significantly increased;

• Funding rates for perpetual contracts in the crypto market have begun to turn positive.

The market logic is clear: as long as Powell releases hints of rate cuts, Bitcoin will likely challenge previous highs, altcoins will see a rebound, and MEME coins will spark a short-term frenzy—these "three pieces" are likely to unfold simultaneously.

Survival rule for seasoned investors: stop-loss is more important than "listening to the wind."

Investors who experienced the interest rate hike storm of 2022 understand: "The Federal Reserve's words are deceiving," and policy statements always carry uncertainty. The most prudent strategy now is to "wait for the shoe to drop":

• If Powell continues to "play Tai Chi" and blur policy direction, focus on Bitcoin's crucial support level at $60,000;

• If dovish signals are unexpectedly released, prioritize positioning in high-beta assets like ETH and SOL with greater elasticity.

Finally, remember: "Central bank leaders' words are priceless, but your stop-loss orders are even more valuable for survival." Regardless of how the market evolves, risk control is always the priority.$BTC $ETH #加密市场回调 #BitDigital转型 #美联储取消创新活动监管计划