🇺🇸 The Fed's balance increased by $2.77 billion over the week — the market is closely watching every step of the regulator 👀

Here’s what the heads of the regional Fed banks are saying:

🟡 Barkin: rates can be adjusted if the economy improves. But there is a risk of simultaneous inflation and unemployment growth.

🟡 Mierin: there are currently no signs of widespread inflationary pressure.

🟡 Kaplan: a rate cut of 75–100 basis points is possible, but time is needed. The Fed needs to be led by someone with a new vision.

🟡 Goolsbee: the Fed must remain independent. Tariffs can cause stagflation. A rate cut is only possible with stable inflation.

🟡 Bostic: the labor market is strong, but there are signs of its weakening.

🟡 Musalem: tariffs raise inflation, their impact can last up to 9 months. An aggressive rate cut poses a risk to inflation expectations.

📉 Here’s how the market sees the future of Fed rates:

— September 17: a decrease of 25 basis points is expected to 4.00–4.25%

— October 29: another -25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%

— December 10: pause

— January 28, 2026: a decrease to 3.50–3.75%

— March 18 and April 29: pause

— June 17: another -25 basis points to 3.25–3.50%

🔍 Rates down — risks up. Is the market ready for a new wave of volatility?

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