Compiled by: GaryMa Wu says blockchain

Summary
Wu says this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the U.S. July CPI annual rate was below expectations, but core CPI rose to the highest level since February, while July PPI annual rate significantly exceeded market expectations. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September; this week, key attention will be on the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.

Last week review

  • The U.S. reported July seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate 0.2%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%; July unadjusted CPI annual rate 2.7%, expected 2.8%, previous value 2.7%. July unadjusted core CPI annual rate further increased to 3.1%, the highest in five months, above the market expectation of 3.0%.

  • U.S. July PPI annual rate 3.3%, expected 2.5%, previous value revised from 2.30% to 2.4%. Significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%, this is the highest since February. U.S. July PPI monthly rate recorded 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022.

  • China's July M2 money supply annual rate 8.8%, expected 8.3%.

  • 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed a desire to review more economic data before deciding whether to cut interest rates.

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains stable, he still believes a rate cut in 2025 is appropriate.

  • For the week ending August 9, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. was 224,000, expected 228,000, previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.


Key events & indicators this week
August 18

  • Trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine


August 20

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces interest rate decision (10:00)


August 21

  • The Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes (02:00)

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook (03:00)

  • For the week ending August 16, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. (thousands) (20:30)

  • Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, until August 23


August 22

  • Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (22:00)

#PPI