Bitcoin price is expected to exceed $4.81 million by 2036, according to new forecasts.
A new study by Satoshi Action Education indicates a 75% chance that the price of Bitcoin will exceed $4.81 million by April 2036.
The study, led by economist Murray A. Rudd, uses an updated probability model to examine how institutional supply and demand constraints affect long-term valuations.
Supply and price shock scenarios in Bitcoin
Updated results show a superior price of 75% at $4.81 million by April 2036. The superior performance range of 25% reaches $10.22 million, while the upper limit of 95% ranges from $11.9 million to $14.76 million, depending on the simulation parameters.
In the most extreme simulations, representing 1%, the price peak approaches $50 million. The median expectations range between approximately $6.55 million and $6.96 million for the same date. The supply cap of 21 million bitcoins, along with expected cash liquidity estimated at around 3 million bitcoins, forms the basis of the supply.
Long-term storage, corporate guarantees, decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, and layer two networks are expected to lead to further decreases in the tradable supply. The baseline and mid-scenarios maintain the liquid supply between 6.55 million and 6.96 million bitcoins by April 2036, alleviating extreme expectations.
Pathway simulations illustrate how continuous withdrawals from trading platforms can accelerate the occurrence of liquidity shortages. If the circulating liquidity supply drops below 2 million bitcoins with reduced deflation sensitivity, the model shows that prices could rise rapidly.
In the worst-case scenarios, liquid supply drops below 2 million bitcoins by January 19, 2026, and below 1 million bitcoins by December 7, 2027.
Portfolio strategy implications
The model also incorporates patterns of institutional accumulation, leading to slowed purchases during rising periods and increased buying during stable conditions.
Furthermore, the study indicates that investor awareness of liquidity risks will be essential as reliance on it grows.
