《Tidal Survival Guide: Don't Compete with the Market》$ETH $BNB $SOL

Ethereum just skyrocketed, and a bunch of "price prophets" popped up—holding K-lines like fortune-telling sticks, staring at indicators guessing where the peak is, only to find themselves standing at the crest shouting "it's peaked," and the next second being washed into the sea by a new high wave.

In bull and bear markets, predicting peaks and troughs is particularly amusing. During bear markets, experts shout "$2000 is the bottom," while the price behaves like a sandbag with a leak, crashing down to $880; in bull markets, big names shout "Bitcoin will cap at $100,000," and that number becomes a springboard, directly bouncing the price into the clouds. The market slaps back: the more you try to box it in, the more it wants to break out of your box.

The ups and downs in the crypto circle are essentially a "relay race of human sentiment." Bear markets act like a magnet; when you shout "it's the bottom," panic pulls prices even lower; bull markets act like rocket boosters; when you shout "it's peaked," greed pushes prices even higher. This rule is particularly eerie— the more you struggle to predict, the more the market goes against you.

Those who truly understand the market never play the “guess the peak game,” they only play “look for signals.” Did on-chain transaction fees suddenly spike? Is institutional money secretly flowing in? Are developers crazily updating code? These are the real indicators. Taleb once said: “When you stop predicting, the market will instead hand you the answers.”

Data hits back even harder: Bitcoin bull market peaks are often 30%+ higher than what experts guess, and bear market bottoms are often 20%+ lower than the most pessimistic predictions. This is called the “Expectation Backlash Law”—the market specializes in treating various forms of disbelief; the more you trust predictions, the worse your losses will be.

In 2024, the wise have already tossed their crystal balls. They only focus on three things: Are the active addresses on-chain growing faster than before? Is the proportion of institutional money crossing the line? Does the hash rate match the trading volume? These don’t report specific prices, but can gauge the market's “heartbeat”—is it accelerating towards the peak, or gasping for breath at the bottom.

Remember: Don’t shout “bottom” in a bear market, and don’t guess “peak” in a bull market. Predicting is like arm-wrestling the market, following is leveraging strength against strength. In the face of trends, don’t be a “prophet,” be a “surfer”—when the wave comes, ride it; when the wave retreats, wait for the next one.#美联储取消创新活动监管计划 #美国7月PPI年率高于预期 #主流币轮动上涨