Today's news highlights:
1. Next week's macro outlook: Powell will 'battle' market rate cut expectations.
2. Standard Chartered: Norway's sovereign wealth fund increased its Bitcoin-related asset holdings by 83% in the second quarter.
3. Canary Capital CEO: Bitcoin will reach $140,000 to $150,000 this year, and Ethereum will not set new highs.
4. QCP: The recent pullback in the crypto market is relatively healthy, and the overall upward trend will not be affected.
5. Binance Alpha will conduct an airdrop today at 20:00, with a threshold of 200 points.
6. The Ethereum Foundation associated wallet sold 7,294 ETH at an average price of $4,558 in the past three days.
7. A certain address is suspected of increasing its holdings by 3,333 ETH, with a total increase of approximately $75 million in ETH from yesterday to today.
8. The top 100 Bitcoin treasury-listed companies hold 975,475 BTC, with 13 institutions disclosing increased BTC holdings this week.
Macro
Next week's macro outlook: Powell will 'battle' market rate cut expectations.
In the past week, US economic data was mixed, leading to continued volatility in market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Data released on Friday showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly declined for the first time since April, and inflation expectations rose. Amid ongoing speculation about the Fed reviving rate cuts, the dollar index fell for the second consecutive week, dropping below 98. US Treasury yields generally rose amid inflation concerns, with long-term yields leading the way and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reaching a two-week high. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve policymakers' annual policy seminar in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, next week for clues about the path of rate cuts. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
On Wednesday at 23:00, Fed Governor Waller will speak at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming.
On Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
On Thursday at 3:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook.
On Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US for the week ending August 16.
On Friday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
Next week's PMI data from Europe and the US will provide more clues about how Trump's tariffs are affecting the economy. HSBC analysts noted in a report that 'since the reciprocal tariffs have taken effect, the input cost part of the PMI survey, especially in the US, should be able to initially feel the impact of the tariff increase on prices.'
Henan Provincial People's Congress: The Ministry of Public Security is currently studying and formulating relevant regulations on virtual currencies; localities should not formulate them independently.
The Henan Provincial People's Congress pointed out in the deliberation result report of the (Draft Regulations on the Management of Seized Property in Henan Province) that virtual currency has property attributes and belongs to seized property; this recognition has basically formed a consensus in judicial practice. However, China has now fully banned virtual currency trading and lacks legal trading platforms, and localities are still in the exploratory stage regarding the disposal of seized virtual currency. The report also revealed that the Ministry of Public Security is researching and formulating relevant systems, which are more suitable to be uniformly regulated at the national level, and local legislation should not set regulations independently.
The Shanghai First Intermediate People's Court concluded a fundraising fraud case involving a digital collectibles platform.
According to the official WeChat account of the Shanghai First Intermediate People's Court, recently, the Shanghai First Intermediate People's Court (hereinafter referred to as Shanghai No. 1 Intermediate Court) concluded a second-instance criminal case involving digital collectibles. Defendants Wang and Liu, under the guise of operating a digital collectibles platform, issued digital collectibles whose underlying electronic images were generated by AI, falsely promoted the appreciation prospects of the aforementioned digital collectibles, and promised 'half-price' capital preservation. The court ruled that Wang and Liu constituted the crime of fundraising fraud. The court sentenced defendant Wang to eight years and six months in prison and fined him 550,000 yuan; defendant Liu was sentenced to seven years and two months in prison and fined 500,000 yuan; the tools used in the crime were confiscated, and the seized funds were returned to the victims, with any shortfall required to be compensated.
From October to December 2023, Wang and Liu registered a technology company in Shanghai, mainly focusing on a digital collectibles platform. During this period, Wang and Liu publicly promoted and sold digital collectibles to the public using the platform and WeChat groups as online media. The two purchased electronic images generated by AI on a computer for 2888 yuan and 'put them on the chain' through a third-party blockchain company (i.e., placed on the private chain built by a third-party company), transforming the aforementioned electronic images into digital collectibles with high investment value.
Wang and Liu issued 7,888 to 16,888 digital collectibles on a certain platform at prices ranging from 9.9 yuan to 69.9 yuan. Additionally, Wang and Liu distributed red envelopes in chat groups, fabricated the illusion that they were overseas and had strong financial resources, falsely promoted the appreciation prospects of the digital collectibles, promised physical feedback, 'half-price' capital preservation, and buyback guarantees, luring victims to purchase the platform's initial launch collectibles for trading in the secondary market within the platform; they attracted more victims to invest through activities such as 'blind boxes', 'synthesis', 'airdrops', and 'priority purchases'; controlled the trading volume and prices of collectibles in the platform's secondary market through self-buying and self-selling to create the illusion of active trading; when victims were unable to trade collectibles and requested refunds, they blocked the victims.
Perspective
QCP: The recent pullback in the crypto market is relatively healthy, and the overall upward trend will not be affected.
QCP released a report stating that the announcement of the US PPI data has largely eliminated the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut. In the cryptocurrency sector, US Treasury Secretary Basent stated that he would not sell confiscated bitcoins and would focus on exploring budget-neutral ways to acquire more bitcoins to expand reserves. Bitcoin has stabilized around $119,000 after dropping from a high of $124,000, with the risk reversal clearly skewed towards put options. Despite the pressure from macro factors, QCP believes that the upward trend in cryptocurrency that began in April this year remains intact, supported by payment integration, balance sheet allocation, speculative positions, and continuously increasing corporate adoption rates.
Canary Capital CEO: Bitcoin will reach $140,000 to $150,000 this year, and Ethereum will not set new highs.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg stated in an interview with CNBC, 'There is over a 50% chance Bitcoin will rise to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before a new bear market arrives.' Steven McClurg attributed this increase to growing ETF demand and the expansion of institutional buyers, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and corporate bonds.
However, Steven McClurg does not believe the recent surge in Ethereum's momentum will continue. 'I'm not a big fan of Ethereum; it's just an old technology. There are many other protocols that are faster, cheaper, and fundamentally more secure. Although Ethereum has performed well over the past five years or so, new blockchains like Solana and Sui have surpassed it. I expect Ethereum to gradually decline and not reach new all-time highs.'
Analysts: Over 890,000 ETH waiting for redemption may exacerbate selling pressure on ETH.
According to validatorqueue.com data, the Ethereum blockchain validator exit queue has reached 897,599 ETH, a record high. In this regard, Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon stated that the growing queue for unstaking ETH may be the reason for the recent pullback in this asset. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has recently shrunk by hundreds of dollars after approaching a historic high.
Juan Leon explained that the queue for unstaking ETH may negatively impact the price of ETH. 'Tokens like stETH can trade at a discount. This discount reduces their value as collateral, leading to risk reduction, hedging, or even liquidation, ultimately resulting in ETH spot sell-offs.' Juan Leon added that as the redemption queue grows, some trades may be liquidated, especially if the cost of borrowing ETH skyrockets. When this happens, 'leveraged 'stETH circular' trades conducted through liquidity pools in DeFi protocols will no longer be profitable.' Leon stated, 'Traders are forming synchronized selling pressure by liquidating and selling ETH to repay loans.'
The ETF Store president: It is not recommended to purchase BTC or ETH through 'Treasury companies'; you can buy directly.
The ETF Store President Nate Geraci tweeted, 'Setting aside the noise, if you really believe in Bitcoin or Ethereum, just buy directly or buy a spot ETF. You don't need the financial engineering associated with 'Treasury companies.'
Analysts: Sovereign wealth funds will become the largest holders of Bitcoin, and staking rewards may evolve into universal basic income.
Real Vision's Chief Cryptocurrency Analyst Jamie Coutts stated on platform X that the market capitalization of blockchain staking is experiencing explosive growth, and sovereign wealth funds, responsible for protecting national prosperity, will become the largest holders of Bitcoin and its related industries (such as mining) in the future—they will not only use it as a means of value storage but will also become the backbone of energy balance in the AI era and grid optimization.
Meanwhile, these funds will conduct large-scale blockchain staking operations to derive profits from the on-chain tokenized economy. In a world where AI replaces entire industries, staking rewards may evolve into a form of indirect universal basic income—a sovereign 'digital dividend' redistributed to citizens. Just as oil royalties funded social projects in the 20th century, blockchain revenues may finance welfare and stability in the 21st century.
Project Dynamics
Cardano developer EMURGO will stop delegating Genesis ADA to 7 community DReps.
Cardano developer EMURGO tweeted that it will stop delegating Genesis ADA to 7 community DReps to promote inclusivity and fairness in Cardano governance. EMURGO had previously stopped delegating Genesis ADA to its own DReps. This action responds to community feedback, including concerns over EMURGO's use of Genesis ADA delegation in the Rare Evo discussions. This delegation removal will occur during the transition from Epoch 576 to Epoch 577 to ensure active financial proposals are not affected.
Binance Alpha will conduct an airdrop today at 20:00, with a threshold of 200 points.
According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will conduct an airdrop today at 20:00. Users holding at least 200 Binance Alpha points can claim the token airdrop. First come, first served, until the airdrop pool is exhausted or the event ends. Specific details will be announced separately.
Important Data
The Ethereum Foundation associated wallet sold 7,294 ETH at an average price of $4,558 in the past three days.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet associated with the Ethereum Foundation (0xF39d) sold 7,294 ETH at an average price of $4,558 over the past three days, totaling $33.25 million. This wallet purchased 33,678 ETH at a low price of $1,193 from June 13 to 16, 2022, totaling $40.2 million.
In the past 7 days, NFT transaction volume increased by 30% to $173 million, with both the number of buyers and sellers increasing by over 160%.
CryptoSlam data shows that the NFT market transaction volume increased by 30% in the past week, reaching $173.2 million. The number of NFT buyers surged by 190.41% to 214,716, while the number of NFT sellers increased by 168.71% to 115,289. The number of NFT transactions decreased by 10.65% to 1,553,949.
The Ethereum network transaction volume reached $105.4 million, an increase of 85% from the previous week; the BNB Chain network transaction volume reached $18.1 million, with an increase of 33.48%. The Polygon network transaction volume reached $11.5 million, a decrease of 35.51%. The Mythos Chain network transaction volume reached $9.3 million, a decrease of 3.52%. The Solana network transaction volume reached $8.9 million, an increase of 10.14%.
This week's high-value transactions include:
Bored Ape Yacht Club #4795 sold for 200 ETH ($909,183).
Bored Ape Yacht Club #2337 sold for 140 ETH ($634,809).
Bored Ape Yacht Club #9670 sold for 140 ETH ($633,982).
Bored Ape Yacht Club #7706 sold for 140 ETH ($633,982).
Bored Ape Yacht Club #9670 sold for 100 ETH ($453,435).
A certain address is suspected of increasing its holdings by 3,333 ETH, with a total increase of approximately $75 million in ETH from yesterday to today.
According to @ai_9684xtpa monitoring, a certain address has seemingly increased its holdings by 3,333 ETH just 7 minutes ago, worth $14.93 million. Since yesterday, it has cumulatively withdrawn 16,872 ETH (worth $74.99 million) from Kraken at an average price of $4,444.76.
News this morning, a new address has cumulatively withdrawn over $60 million in ETH from Kraken since yesterday.
Data: a16z achieved a profit of $12.06 million in the past week, leading investment institutions.
According to Nansen data, over the past week, a16z achieved a profit of $12.06 million through 9 wallets, leading investment institutions; Master Ventures achieved a profit of $2.59 million; Defiance Capital achieved a profit of $942,800.
Data: The top 100 Bitcoin treasury-listed companies hold 975,475 BTC, with 13 institutions disclosing increased BTC holdings this week.
According to BTCtreasuries disclosure data, 13 institutions disclosed increased Bitcoin holdings this week, including Galaxy increasing by approximately 2,894 BTC, Metaplanet increasing by 518 BTC, The Smarter Web Company increasing by 295 BTC, DDC Enterprise increasing by 120 BTC, Bitmax increasing by 51.11 BTC, etc. As of August 16, the top 100 publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies hold 975,475 BTC.
Institutional Holdings
Bitcoin Standard Treasury: Will increase its Bitcoin holdings to over 50,000 BTC.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin Standard Treasury (BSTR), led by cryptography pioneer Adam Back, announced it is preparing to go public on NASDAQ through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners (CEPO). Currently, it holds 30,021 BTC on its balance sheet and plans to increase its Bitcoin reserves to over 50,000 BTC.
If this goal is achieved, Bitcoin Standard Treasury is expected to surpass MARA Holdings (MARA) to become the second-largest BTC holder after Strategy. Currently, MSTR, MARA, and BSTR collectively hold approximately 710,000 Bitcoins, accounting for about 3.38% of the total fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoins.
Standard Chartered: Norway's sovereign wealth fund increased its Bitcoin-related asset holdings by 83% in the second quarter.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, stated that Norges Bank Investment Management increased its Bitcoin-related asset holdings by 83% in the second quarter. The fund raised its Bitcoin equivalent exposure from 6,200 BTC to 11,400 BTC, an increase of 83%. This holding is almost entirely invested in MicroStrategy and added approximately 200 BTC equivalent positions in Metaplanet. Norges Bank Investment Management, also known as Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, managing $17 trillion in assets.
