Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Shift, Quick Analysis of ETH's Rise and Fall Logic
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has dropped to 92.1%. This data anomaly is weaving a dual-track game script for ETH of "macroeconomic liquidity + ecological evolution".
1. Macroeconomic Anchor: Rate Cut Expectations Remain the Core Engine
Nearly 90% probability of a rate cut is the 'invisible liquidity valve' for global risk assets:
Momentum Unbroken: Although the probability has slightly decreased, the consensus on 'the beginning of an easing cycle' remains, and under the loose liquidity of the US dollar, ETH, as a branch of risk assets, naturally benefits from the uplift in funding risk appetite; Game Upgrade: The market is rehearsing 'buying expectations, selling facts', but as long as the September policy does not show a 'hawkish reversal' (7.9% probability of maintaining the interest rate is still weak), the mid-term upward liquidity logic for ETH remains intact. 2. Ecological Moat: Strong Underlying Support for ETH and BTC is Significantly Different in Building Anti-Drop Barriers:
Staking Economy as a Foundation: Over 25 million ETH staked (accounting for 20% of circulation), with a 4% annualized return, making it a 'yield-generating asset', providing anti-drop strength against purely speculative targets; Dual Engine Drive: ETH is the core of DeFi settlements and the anchor for NFT transactions. When risk appetite rebounds, DeFi leverage and NFT creation will directly push up demand, representing an endogenous growth logic. 3. Operational Signals: Short-term Volatility, Mid-term Bullish
In the short term, there may be wide fluctuations due to 'expectation games' (synchronized with US stocks, gold, and other risk assets), but the mid-term main line is clear:
As long as the rate cut is realized (or maintains easing expectations), combined with staking + ecological dual support, the window for ETH to break through key resistance levels is still opening.
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